Australia's national government is under pressure on immigration. In the most recent edition of the benchmark Lowy Institute Poll, released 22 June 2026, 55% of Australians say . That is the highest-ever rating of public concern about migration, up only slightly from last year (when 53% said immigration levels were too high) but a 7% gain overall from the 2024 poll.

Meanwhile, the opposition Coalition, and, perhaps even more strikingly, the surging One Nation Party, continue to contend for public support, in part on a strong anti-migration message. The most recent opinion polling sees One Nation edging the official Liberal-National Coalition opposition for second place, and within striking distance of the governing Labor Party under Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

All of which means it was noteworthy this week when the Minister for Immigration and Citizenship, Tony Burke, at The National Press Club. The Minister was widely expected to use the speech to "unveil far-reaching changes to Australia's migration settings," but a spokesperson for Minister Burke confirmed that "it became clear that some elements of the speech would not be finalised" in time for the Press Club appearance.

The move has led to considerable speculation over the direction of migration policy. Writing in , the University of Canberra's Michelle Grattan said, "What this week’s toing and froing also signals is that the government knows making more drastic changes to immigration to bring it under control is now a strong political imperative."

There is some irony in those political headwinds in that migration levels in Australia have actually been declining in recent years – the key measure for which is the Net Overseas Migration figure (NOM).

The NOM is the Australian Bureau of Statistics' official indicator of the migration contribution to population change. The methodology behind it is somewhat complex and laggy, but in short: the NOM calculates the difference between the number of people arriving to live in Australia and the number leaving to live elsewhere, regardless of citizenship or visa type (and including Australian citizens and permanent residents).

The most recent NOM calculation is for the year ending 30 June 2025, when it was reckoned at 306,000 people. That is down significantly from 429,000 the year before (-34%), and even more dramatically from the post-pandemic peak of 538,000 people in 2022/23.

The 2025 NOM nets out 568,000 arrivals for that year against 263,000 departures, with international students as the largest single arrivals group (157,000).

In its budget planning documents, the Albanese government estimates that the NOM will edge down to 295,000 in 2025/26 before arriving at a longer-term target of 225,000 by 2027/28. That 225,000 figure can be debated in many different directions but it seems clear that it will become something of a political fulcrum around which the debate about migration will revolve in the months and years ahead.

Watch for the signs

With that comment about the "political imperative" to reduce net migration numbers ringing in our ears, let's reflect on some of the recent moves to constrain migration, and inbound student movement in particular. These are noteworthy in part because they are all a function of tightening processes and settings within government – as opposed to legislation or other formal regulatory intervention – and have generally been introduced without consultation or even any significant lead time.

For example, on 1 July 2026, the following visa application fee increases were enacted with immediate effect and without prior notice.

• Student visa application fee for higher education and vocational (VET) studies (subclass 500): AU$2,000 to AU$2,500, unless students are from ASEAN countries (AU$2,050)
• Student visa fee for English-language studies (ELICOS): AU$2,000 to AU$2,050
• Temporary Graduate Visa 485 (for post-study work): AU$4,600 to AU$5,750
• Partner visa: AU$9,365 to AU$11,710

On 1 March 2026, also for immediate implementation and without warning, the application fee for the Temporary Graduate Visa (subclass 485) doubled to AU$4,600 from AU$2,300. (Meaning that the 1 July increase for subclass 485 was the second significant increase for this visa category within four months.)

Visa approval rates have also been trending down through 2026. In February 2026 alone, one out of every three students applying to an Australian university was rejected and that monthly refusal average (32.5%) was the most significant in 21 years of tracking. The approval rate for student visa applications dipped again in March, to 59%, and the year-to-date approvals through May 2026 ran at just 72% overall (which was again a 20-year low for that January to May period).

Most recently, the Department of Home Affairs has for most eligible countries for the Work and Holiday (subclass 462) programme. The programme includes a hard cap on the number of first Work and Holiday visas that can be granted to applicants from specific countries, and it appears that that limit has already been reached for most within a month of the application window having opened for this year on 2 July.

This could be read as another restriction on inbound mobility. But it should be said that closing that application window is not unusual, and that the immigration system normally "pauses" Work and Holiday applications when those cap limits are reached.

Further, the cap limits are specific to the Work and Holiday (subclass 462). There is a related subclass 417 () which, while reporting higher-than-normal application volumes this year, remains open to eligible applicants. Taken together, there were roughly 225,900 Working Holiday Makers in Australia as of 31 December 2025 (counting visitors on both 417 and 462 visas).

For additional background, please see:

• "Australia: As visa applications from foreign students fall, the government has set the national target for new international students in 2027"
• "Surprise hike in international student visa application fees 'a direct hit to Australia’s competitiveness'"
• "Universities urged to focus on 'factors they can control' as policy settings depress international student enrolments in the Big Four"
• "Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers"