Today the session starts somewhere else. The student still arrives with a list. But the first question now usually comes from the parent, and it is rarely about a university at all. Will this degree pay back the years and the money? Will it still be relevant when my child graduates? Will artificial intelligence make it obsolete before the loan is repaid?

I have heard versions of these three questions in counselling rooms in Chandigarh, Manila, Lagos, and Bogota. They are asked quietly, sometimes almost apologetically, but they are serious questions, and they shape family decisions worth billions of dollars every year. They have also quietly changed what good student advising looks like.

Why the counselling room matters

It is easy to underestimate how much of international education still runs through a single conversation between a family and an adviser. According to the American International Recruitment Council, 44% of international students rely on recruitment agents to help them decide what and where to study. And the reason they are in that room has changed too. Career development is now the number one motivator for studying abroad, cited by 67% of students in IDP’s Emerging Futures research. Students are not just buying an experience any more. They are buying a working future.

That places advisers at a point of real leverage. The counselling conversation is where family hopes meet market reality, often for the first time. When expectations shift, advisers feel it before institutions do, and long before policy makers do. Which is why what we are hearing in those rooms now deserves attention.

From prestige to proof

When we ran the fieldwork for the this year, covering 4,812 agents, students, institution leaders and employers across 25 countries, one pattern came through more strongly than any other: families have stopped asking for prestige and started asking for proof.

In South Asia, 89% of recruitment agents told us their top request from institutions is now skill-mapped programme documentation, not brochures. In North America, agents named post-study visa clarity and programme-level outcome data as the top two concerns students bring to them, at 78% and 71%. Across regions, parents increasingly ask employment questions before they ask admission questions.

The shift makes sense once you see the counselling room from the family’s side. A ranking describes an institution. But a family is not buying an institution. They are buying one specific degree, and they want to know what happens to the people who finish it. Institution-level averages do not answer that. Programme-level outcomes do, and families have worked this out faster than much of the sector has.

The safety net that isn’t there

For a long time, advising had a comfortable answer to the anxiety behind these questions: choose a good university, and if the job market changes, you can always reskill later. Our research suggests that answer no longer holds.

Across OECD countries, only 8% of adults take part in formal, accredited learning in a given year, and the open online courses that were supposed to close the gap complete at a median rate of 12.6%. Meanwhile, 53% of the technical skills a graduate learns in year one are judged obsolete within three years. Skills are going out of date roughly six times faster than the system replaces them. Reskilling after work exists, but as a safety net for an entire generation, it is thin. Families who press on curriculum quality before enrolment, rather than trusting the system to patch things later, are being rational.

What is more encouraging is what employers told us they actually hire on. In our survey, 73% of employers said they hire recent international graduates primarily for durable skills, things like communication, judgment, ethical behaviour, and the ability to work across cultures, rather than for a specific technical stack. Technical tools change. These capabilities compound. For an adviser, that is a genuinely useful message to carry into a conversation with an anxious parent: the degree that protects your child is not the one with the most fashionable specialisation, it is the one that builds the skills that survive the tools.

Will AI make it obsolete?

We put that exact fear under a microscope in this year’s Barometer. Comparing internationally-mobile graduates against domestically-educated peers in the same fields, employers placed 71% of the internationally-mobile group in AI-augmented roles, work where AI expands what one person can do rather than replacing them, against 54% for domestic graduates. Only 6% of the internationally-mobile group sat in roles at material AI-displacement risk. For domestic graduates in the same fields, that figure was 14%, over twice as high. PwC’s analysis of nearly a billion job postings found the same pattern at market scale: workers with AI skills now command a 56% wage premium globally, more than double what it was a year earlier.

None of this makes the advantage automatic. It is built on the durable skills, the cross-cultural fluency and the sequenced curriculum design that produced it in the first place. But it does mean an adviser can answer a parent’s hardest question with a number instead of a reassurance.

What good advising looks like now

None of this requires advisers to become labour economists. In our work with counselling teams, the practices that are working are simple ones.

The first is to ask institutions for programme-level employment data, in writing, rather than settling for institution-level claims. Institutions that have this data increasingly share it, and the act of asking signals what families now expect.

The second is to talk to parents about durable skills directly. Parents understand instinctively that communication, adaptability and integrity matter at work. Naming them as the core of a degree’s value, with evidence, answers the AI question far better than reassurance does.

The third is to screen recommended programmes for work-integrated learning and international cohorts. Internships, placements and genuinely mixed classrooms are where durable skills form, and they show up later in employment outcomes. Arizona State University’s National Work-Integrated Learning Accelerator now generates 1.8 million experiential-learning hours per student cohort. In the Netherlands, international graduates who complete structured cross-cultural programmes actually out-earn their domestic peers, 48% of them clear €55,000 a year against 44% of domestic graduates in the same bracket. Programmes built this way are not hard to find once an adviser starts asking for them by name.

The fourth is simply to keep the post-study visa picture current for every destination, because in several markets it has become the first question, not the last.

Advising as trust infrastructure

There is one more finding from our study worth sitting with. Among UK-bound students we surveyed, 64% said they would still choose the UK despite recent visa changes, provided programme-level employment data was transparent. Read that carefully: even in a market facing policy headwinds, transparency holds demand. Families are not asking for perfect conditions. They are asking to see the evidence and decide for themselves.

That, to me, is the real story of how counselling is changing. The adviser’s role is shifting from gatekeeper of options to interpreter of evidence. It is less glamorous than selling dreams, and considerably more valuable. Students get decisions they can defend at the kitchen table. Institutions that publish honest outcomes get rewarded for it. And the sector gets something it badly needs, which is trust built one family conversation at a time.

The questions parents ask in counselling rooms are harder than they were five years ago. That is not a problem to be managed. It is the clearest sign we have that families are taking the decision seriously, and the sector should answer them in kind.

– Dr Priya Ranganathan is research director at MSM Unify, where she leads the company’s global research programme, including the annual MSM Unify Global Skills Barometer, a study of agents, students, institution leaders and employers across 25 countries. MSM Unify is a global education platform supporting institutions, students, and channel partners across international education markets. MSM Unify helps institutions strengthen student recruitment, enrolment management, and education delivery through technology, services, and global market expertise.

For additional background, please see:

• Readers who want to explore contemporary counselling issues more closely should consider , newly released by 91ɬ��Academy in partnership with Successful Graduate
• “Global agent survey reveals international students’ top concerns are visa uncertainty and affordability“
• “What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad“

The post The questions families are actually asking: Inside the student advising conversation in 2026 appeared first on 91ɬ��Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

• Anxious, including about AI’s impact on their career;
• Considering a wider range of study abroad options, and carefully evaluating risk and reward.

The survey for the report was completed by 870 education agents across 64 countries in May 2026.

What are the issues?

The last time international students felt this stressed about their education was arguably during the COVID-19 pandemic. Study plans were disrupted; isolation was the norm; and worries about personal health and family members’ health was intense.

Students’ concerns are different today. Many of them stem from an uncertainty about how to make wise decisions about what to study and where to study.

Surveyed agents said that students are most concerned about (1) the risk of sudden changes to visa rules and (2) cost of living pressures. Agents have to advise students about whether a Big Four destination (i.e., Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US) has changed its immigration settings yet again.

The continued narrowing of visa and immigration rights – with new rules often announced without warning – provides ample evidence that there is more risk to choosing these destinations than in the past.

Significant proportions of agents also said that students are worried about safety and security, exchange rate volatility, risk of travel disruption, increased cost of air travel, breakdown in country-to-country relations, and rising fuel and energy costs.

Students need more support

More than half of agents said that compared with 12 months ago, students are more likely to face financial strain (54%), need more academic support (78%), and need more mental and social support (82%). All of these percentages increased markedly since the previous survey in 2025.

A growing body of US, UK, and global shows that large proportions of youth believe that AI is a threat to their job prospects. This is reinforced in the Navitas survey: 75% of agents said that students are concerned about the impact of AI on their careers.

Visa acceptance rates are deterring even the strongest students

In emerging markets, students are well aware that visa rejection rates are high in the Big Four. Agents said this awareness is reducing applications even from top students with a good chance of being approved (80%). Another 76% said that students with strong academic and financial profiles are more likely to choose alternative destinations with higher visa certainty.

Increased interest in alternative destinations, more questions about the value of study abroad

International students are reacting in a variety of ways to the more uncertain climate around study abroad and to affordability pressures:

• 82% of agents said applicants are applying to more destination countries than in the past;
• 85% said they are applying to more institutions within each destination country;
• 77% said they are increasingly applying to study in alternative destinations;
• 72% said they are more likely to have a back-up plan to study in their home country;
• And 68% said that they are more likely to give up on study abroad due to lack of affordability

Study at home is increasingly an option

Close to half of agents said that there is now a perception that universities or branch campuses in their country are providing an equal quality of education as institutions overseas. Among students who decide to stay home, affordability is by far the top reason (87%).

Destination trends

Perceptions of top anglophone destinations have stabilised for Australia, picked up for Canada, and are continuing to slide in the UK. New Zealand is by far outperforming the Big Four in terms of positive perceptions, while the US has the poorest image.

AI is not displacing agents

AI may be changing the nature of student–agent interactions, but it is not substituting for agents’ skills and human assistance. Students are consulting AI when researching study abroad and then going to agents to validate/interpret the information. Over 4 in 10 agents said that students are relying on them more despite AI, and 3 in 10 said there has been no change.

In the foreword to the survey report, Scott Jones, group CEO of Navitas, contextualised the findings and the importance of hearing from agents:

“Once again, the results offer compelling data that both confirms the behaviours we are seeing, and sheds light on how the international education landscape continues to evolve in the current economic and geopolitical environment.”

There is clearly a new competitive advantage for destinations and institutions that can access it: certainty. Communicating stable visa policies, strong student supports, programme strengths, and in-study and post-study work opportunities can go a long way toward emphasising this advantage.

For additional background, please see:

• “91ɬ��Podcast: Student flows are shifting. Are agencies following suit?”
• “Visa delays and policy uncertainty projected to reduce foreign enrolment in the US by more than 100,000 students this fall”

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The answer used to be pretty simple: the Big Four. Just a couple of years ago, Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US welcomed more than 70% of all Indian students abroad, offering a range of quality study opportunities, post-study work rights, and the possibility of immigration.

But a combination of factors is changing (1) the shape of Indian student mobility, (2) the drivers of that mobility, and (3) the profile of Indian students most likely to consider study abroad.

Weakening demand for Big Four destinations

Readers of 91ɬ��Monitor are well aware of policies that are making it more difficult for students from the Global South to study in Australia, Canada, the UK, and US. In brief, these include reduced incentives for immigration, changes to work rights, high visa rejection rates, steeper visa application fees and/or other costs of study, and high costs of living. Some of the following statistics indicate the effect of policies that discourage Indian students from applying to Big Four countries at this time:

• High visa rejection rates: 61% in the US (2025), 62% in Canada (Q1 2026), and 60% in Australia (February 2026);
• Declining visa applications: for example, in Canada, Indian study permit applications fell from 35% of the total in 2023 to 17% in 2025;
• Fewer new students: for example, commencements fell by -33% in the UK between 2022/23 and 2024/25, -5.5% in Australia in 2025 versus 2024, and -44% in the US for F-1 visas in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024.

Other destinations gaining share

Indian students are diverting their interest to alternative destinations. From 2024 to 2025, Indian enrolments rose by:

• +21% in Russia;
• +20% in Germany;
• +20% in Ireland;
• +18% in New Zealand;
• +17% in France;
• +5% in Italy.

New drivers of Indian outbound mobility

India’s affluent and middle classes are growing rapidly. Goldman Sachs estimates that the “affluent” cohort nearly tripled from 24 million people in 2015 to about 60 million in 2023, and the firm predicts that this cohort will reach 100 million by 2027.

As for the middle class, Oxford Economics notes:

“India’s middle class is the second largest [after China] in emerging markets at just over 27 million households, but it’s roughly the same size as Brazil’s, which has a population seven times smaller. By 2029, India’s middle class will more than double in size to reach 62 million households.”

The size and growth of a country’s middle class is important to all global product and service companies because it indicates robust and burgeoning purchasing power. Middle-class consumers are able to go beyond satisfying basic needs (e.g., food and shelter) to seeking quality and prestigious brands. They are thus more likely to be interested in – and able to pay for – programmes at foreign universities that result in well-regarded and internationally recognised degrees.

The following chart shows the rapid forecasted rise of the middle class in India (as you can see, the Philippines, Vietnam, Egypt, and Thailand are also notable in this regard).

What’s the catch?

If we move beyond middle-class statistical indicators, the picture becomes more complex. As marketing intelligence firm notes of India’s middle class:

“Simply put, prudence in everything so as to feel safe, secure and comfortable. Always aspirational but rarely overambitious. This cohort is perhaps becoming more inscrutable and not as easy to please as they perhaps have been in the past.”

India’s middle-class households may be moving from “need” to “want” in their purchasing mindset, but that doesn’t mean that “want” always translates to “buy.” Indian fintech company estimates that India’s “middle-class salaried household” spending is spread across three categories:

• “39% goes to obligatory expenses – things like loan [payments], insurance premiums, and rent. These are the non-negotiables that hit before anything else.
• 32% goes to necessities – groceries, utilities, fuel, medical expenses, school fees. Things you need but have some control over.
• 29% goes to discretionary spending – dining out, entertainment, subscriptions, clothing, travel, and everything else.”

SalarySe explains:

“That 29% discretionary figure sounds generous until you remember it’s the last call on a budget that’s already been carved up by rent, [loan payments], school fees, and petrol. In practice, it’s where the most emotional spending happens, and where the most guilt tends to follow.”

As a result, India’s middle-class families are necessarily cautious, careful, and looking for value for money. Where the affluent class is able to make decisions based on rankings and other markers of prestige, the middle class is more interested in institutions in destinations with welcoming policies, lower tuition and living costs, and strong post-graduate outcomes. It may take more time and resources to convince families in this cohort that a university is worth their money.

This is especially true given that the number of quality higher education institutions in India is rising. India stands out as the country that sent more universities (eight) into the 2026 World University Rankings for the first time than any other country – and that is in a field of 106 countries. Over a span of 12 years, India’s higher education system has risen more quickly in the rankings than any other G20 country.

India is also notable for its interest in partnerships with foreign universities and transnational education arrangements such as branch campuses and joint programmes. The Indian government has official strategies aimed at reducing brain drain, and it is at least as interested in partnering with foreign universities and attracting international students as it is in sending students abroad.

What does it all mean?

India’s middle class is expanding the most significantly outside of major metropolises such as Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, and Hyderabad, as people move to smaller cities to escape high costs of living. More families are now able to consider study abroad in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities and rural areas than in the past.

Because characteristics of the middle class will vary across cities and regions, working with vetted, proven education agents and forming relationships with top Indian universities and schools is more crucial today than ever. Ensuring that agents are reputable – with strong track records and demonstrated ethics – is key, especially for institutions in Big Four destinations where visa rejection rates are high.

Just as important is developing proof points on the institutional website, through alumni and student ambassadors, and in all communications that enrolling with your university delivers amazing value for money. This means collecting data on post study outcomes; being completely transparent with costs; and offering distinguishing features such as applications assistance, comprehensive support services, internships, and institution-employer connections.

Quite simply, Indian families have been spooked by policy developments in the Big Four. They will need more reassurance, proof, and support from institutions and agents alike. They have more options – as enrolment data in alternative destinations clearly shows. As a result, India represents a more discerning – while still very promising – source of international students.

For additional background, please see:

• “What is happening to student mobility flows between the Global South and Global North?”
• “The number of Indian students abroad fell in 2025”
• “How post-study work rights can make or break the return on investment for study abroad”

The post Changing landscape for student recruitment in India calls for new strategies appeared first on 91ɬ��Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The insights come at a time when Canadian immigration officials are being directed to more thoroughly investigate students’ sources of funding. , but meeting those requirements does not automatically secure a better chance of approval. What increasingly matters is that (1) funds are presented through clear and proper paperwork and that (2) a student’s financial situation is stable. An atypical infusion of cash into a bank account, for example, is likely to raise eyebrows at Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC).

Contrasting trends

Compared with January–April 2025, IRCC processed -43% fewer new study permit applications than in the same period in 2026. However, the overall approval rate increased by +9 percentage points to 35%.

The immigration assistance company believes that “tighter policy settings and stricter financial documentation requirements are filtering weaker-profile applications out of the system, leaving a pool that succeeds more often.”

Top markets’ approval rates indicate that some countries are deemed higher risk. For example, more than 90% of South Koreans are approved and more than 50% of Chinese are … compared with less than a third in the remaining countries in the following chart.

However, several emerging markets are faring better than last year (through the first four months of 2026) in terms of students’ chances of being approved for a study permit. This includes key markets India (+13% between January–April 2026 versus the same period in 2025) and Nigeria (+8).

Year-over-year trends aside, the consistent trend is that students from European (e.g., France) and some Asian origin markets (e.g., South Korean and Japan) are approved at a much higher rate than students from some Southeast Asian markets (e.g., the Philippines and Nepal) and especially than many African markets (e.g., Cote d’Ivoire , Cameroon, Senegal, Ghana, Guinea, Congo).

BorderPass makes an important point:

“Two institutions with comparable programs and admissions standards can post very different approval rates on recruitment mix alone. Approval rate benchmarks are only meaningful when adjusted for the markets an institution actually recruits from.”

What does this mean for Canadian higher education institutions?

It means that universities and colleges that have invested heavily in diversifying their enrolments to the most emerging of emerging markets (e.g., in West and Central Africa) need to ensure their applicants have incredibly strong documentation behind their study permit applications.

To illustrate the point, of 1,370 study permit refusal letters found that “money paperwork (i.e., could not clearly prove funds)” was by far the main reason Canadian immigration officials cited for a refusal (47%). “Family on the file (i.e., spouses or kids)” and “expired PAL/TAL letter” were much further down the list at 10% each.

ApplyBoard elaborates:

“Almost half of refused students lost on money paperwork. Many of them likely had the money. They just could not prove it in a way a visa officer could trust.”

ApplyBoard’s finding is even more relevant now given newly published IRCC guidance for study permit application processing.

reports that on 24 July 2026, IRCC updated its guidance to immigration officers reviewing study permit applications, directing them to “scrutinise the amount(s) and source(s) of applicants’ funding” and further that “in all cases, the source of funds” must be assessed.”

The update also recommends that officers consider asking for “supplementary individual or family financial and employment documentation to ensure that only genuine students capable of supporting themselves for the full duration of their program of studies are granted study permits.” Previously, IRCC had only advised a review of supplementary documentation in “very high-risk environments.” That specification was removed from the updated guidance, indicating that IRCC officers will now be asking for that supplementary documentation more often.

From its analysis, ApplyBoard suggests four “fixes” to strengthen the financial component of study permit applications:

• GIC confirmation (i.e., a Guaranteed Investment Certificate purchased from a Canadian financial institution that serves as formal proof of funds for living expenses in a study permit application);
• Six months of bank statements with no surprise deposits;
• A sponsor’s job letter plus three months of pay stubs;
• A one-page note explaining any large deposit.

Implications for enrolment management

More broadly, BorderPass recommends that volume-based enrolment planning be replaced by “planning built on conversion quality,” noting that the latter is “better matched to the current system … which is operating at a structurally smaller scale than a year ago.”

The implication is that issuing admissions offfers only to students with strong documentation is a must, as is offering greater assistance to genuine students from emerging markets to help them strengthen their applications.

For additional background, please see:

• “Canadian immigration officials have made several updates to compliance guidance for study permits and post-graduate work permits”
• “Canadian immigration officials move to ease rules around student work permits”
• “New data provides early signals that Canada’s popularity as a study destination is on the rise”

The post Canadian immigration officials increase their scrutiny of study permit applicants’ financial documentation appeared first on 91ɬ��Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The ranking includes 150 cities, all of which must have a 250K+ population and at least a couple of universities in the QS World University Rankings.

Seoul’s #1 position is the second consecutive year it has achieved this ranking. Tokyo is next, and its ranking was driven especially by “employer activity” – a key metric given students’ increasing concerns about finding a good job after completing their programmes. London rounds out the top 3 – and 15 other UK cities also make the list, the most of any country.

Asia-Pacific on the move

Several Asian cities improved their position at the top of the table this year: Singapore (#11 in 2027,+4 over 2026), Beijing (#12, +19), Taipei (#14), Kuala Lumpur (#15, +8), and Kyoto (+2). Two Australian cities also improved their positions: Melbourne (#4) and Sydney (joint #5 with Munich).

As the following chart shows, Asia-Pacific’s ascendence over the past couple of years is in contrast to slower or negative growth trends in many cities in the Americas and Europe.

There were notable declines in Canadian cities including Montreal (#20, -2), Vancouver (joint #33, -4), and Ottawa (joint #84, -4). For those cities, as well as several American cities (Boston, San Francisco, and Washington), affordability was a major drag on overall ranking.

Some Middle Eastern cities ascended dramatically: Riyadh (#76, +21) and Abu Dhabi (#72, +19). Dubai, Sharjah, and Doha also made the 2027 ranking. We can hope that Middle Eastern tensions abate soon for those cities to regain the momentum they have recently achieved.

For additional background, please see:

• “Supply and demand for international higher education increasingly aligned in Asia”

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The report is based on survey findings from just over 67,000 prospective international students from 150 countries. The survey data was collected between October 2025 and April 2026, and Keystone has combined it, where appropriate, with actual search data from its student-facing course search websites.

The first thing that jumps out from the data is the difference between student interest (the destinations students are most interested in) and student intent (the destination where they actually go on to enrol).

For example, Keystone explains, “While the USA was our most-searched destination (19%), fewer students in our survey are selecting it as their intended study destination, a trend that has persisted for the second year running.”

In other words, there is currently a significant gap between students’ initial interest in the Big Four study destinations and their actual enrolment. While students may want to enrol in a preferred destination, they then weigh practical considerations such as their chance of obtaining a study visa and also compare the relative safety and affordability of various options.

“Basically, the Big Four has a huge amount of interest and high appeal,” adds Dr Bennett. “But when we move on to actual intent, we move on to practical factors. That’s where the gap is.”

The Keystone data shows that student interest continues to fragment across a wider field of study destinations, especially those in Europe and Asia. What’s more, more students are now wanting to choose a destination before progressing to considering programmes or institutions.

Intended programme of study remains the most important factor (40%) for students making decisions about study abroad, but it has lost some ground since 2025. By contrast, country choice has risen from a sample-wide average of 20% in 2025 to 28% in 2026 – an average pulled up by certain regional trends. Keystone explains, “For South Asian respondents specifically, country (35%) now outranks programme (31%). This is the only regional audience where we see this happen, and the one most exposed to recent visa and policy changes. This suggests that students are ensuring their chosen destinations are accessible to them before they can consider institutions or courses.”

As for their biggest concerns, cost and eligibility were the top worries for students in this year’s survey, echoing responses from last year. But “political uncertainty” is the fastest-rising concern in 2026 (rated third by students after only cost and eligibility), which points to a significant level of anxiety attached to study abroad decision-making. Students are well-aware of visa barriers and rejection rates, and they are naturally worried that government policies affecting their study/work plans could change before or during their programme.

“Confidence is declining,” says Keystone. “Students worry less about their ability to succeed than their opportunity to do so.”

How do students rate destinations in that larger set?

“The Big 4 still compete on appeal, especially when considering academic reputation and subject offering,” says Keystone. “But they don’t have a commanding lead. And they’re falling behind on the practical considerations that make studying abroad possible for many.”

The chart below shows relative ratings given by students, for various decision factors, across the Big Four, selected destinations in Europe (Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, France), and a sample of Asian destinations (Japan, China, South Korea).

Dr Bennett points out that what this data is telling us is that “Prospective students don’t think the gap between destinations is as big as we perhaps do.”

Use versus trust

The survey findings also paint an interesting picture of the sources and channels that students use in their search for information about study abroad. As we see in the chart below, AI use, for example, is comparable to the percentage that say they look for information on university websites. But the trust students extend to those institutional websites considerably outstrips their confidence in the information they get via AIs.

Keystone offers this summary of the findings in this area: “The takeaway here is reassuring for institutions: even as AI and social media reshape how students search, they haven’t reshaped who students believe. University websites remain the anchor of credibility, the one channel audiences approach with conviction rather than uncertainty.”

“Generative and broad-search tools may dominate the discovery phase, but trust still flows to curated, human-crafted sources. The implication is clear: investing in owned channels and curated partnerships isn’t just defensible, it’s where decisions actually get made.”

For additional background, please see:

• “New IDP research shows link between visa uncertainty and the perceived ROI of study abroad“
• “UNESCO confirms growing trend of intra-regional student mobility“
• “UK: Sponsored study visa issuances down, rejection rates up, and more“
• “From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen“
• “What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad“

The post Survey of 67,000 prospective students highlights gaps between interest and enrolment for study abroad appeared first on 91ɬ��Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Lowest volume of visa applications in the past five years

The Home Office received -33% fewer sponsored study visa applications from students (main applicants) in January–April 2026 than in the same period in 2025. This follows a -21% decline in applications in Q4 2025 versus Q4 2024.

The chart below was published by Nous Group director in mid-May.

As the chart depicts, this year’s January–April visa application volume is the lowest in the past five years. It is -11% below the recent-year low for the same period in 2024, and in April 2026 alone, only 8,900 applications were received. This is down nearly -40% compared with April 2025.

What is driving the decline?

Visa applications from key markets dropped dramatically when the government announced in the summer of 2023 that most international students would no longer be able to bring their families with them to the UK as of January 2024.

However, demand began to pick up in 2025 as the shock wore off: in May 2025 alone, submissions from main applicants (i.e., students rather than dependants) were up +19% compared with May 2024.

This suggests that it wasn’t the dependants ban that prompted the past seven months of applications declines. Rather, many industry analysts believe the drop was spurred by a government announcement in May 2025 that universities would soon need to meet higher standards of compliance in order to continue to host (aka sponsor) international students. The three updated Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) standards demand that institutions maintain:

1. A visa refusal rate of less than 5%
2. An enrolment rate of at least 95%
3. A course completion rate of at least 90%

The government then elaborated in January 2026 that failure to meet even one of the three benchmarks above would land institutions in the “red” or “amber” bands of a “red, amber, green” (RAG) assessment structure. Falling into “red” (e.g., exceeding 5% in visa rejections) can lead to a range of sanctions – the most extreme of which is that an institution has its licence to sponsor international students revoked.

The updated BCA thresholds (and associated RAG system) represent a much more stringent test of compliance than what they replace. found that had the updated benchmarks been in place in 2024, more than 20 universities would have failed at least one threshold and about 49,000 students might have been affected.

The immediate impact on applications

Following on the heels of the May 2025 announcement of the tightened BCA thresholds, the average visa approval rate for international students dropped to 85% in Q4 2025, down from 91% in Q4 2024. Universities were fully aware that the 85% approval rate is a full 10 percentage points below the upcoming BCA threshold of 95%.

For many, the lower average approval rate was the trigger for adopting a more cautious recruitment approach to high-growth markets with higher-than-average refusal rates.

As early as December 2025, some institutions hit the brakes entirely on recruiting in important emerging markets such as Bangladesh and Pakistan, countries where visa rejection rates hover between 18% and 22%. Many also adopted more a more careful approach to markets such as Nigeria, India, and Nepal, including:

• Extending fewer offers
• Checking documents more rigorously
• Holding more credibility interviews

A recent British Universities International Liaison Association (BUILA) survey found that around a third of surveyed UK universities reported curtailing recruitment in certain markets to reduce compliance risk.

The shift towards lower-risk markets continues, and the 1 June official implementation of the stricter BCA metrics will do nothing to halt this momentum.

High-risk markets are high-volume markets

Over the past couple of years, demand from the UK’s top two sources of students, India and China – as well as from the key emerging market of Nigeria (#4) – has been falling. The chart below details commencements from 2005–2025, and it highlights just how sharp the declines have been from India and Nigeria.

Strong demand from Nepal and Pakistan has been essential to mitigating declines from other top markets.

If the BCA compliance benchmarks continue to dampen UK universities’ confidence in recruiting in some Indian states with as well as in Nigeria, Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh, the downward pressure on overall international commencements and enrolments could be severe. Collectively, according to HESA data, those five countries accounted for 39% of international enrolments in the UK in 2024/25. Looking at the entire student population (domestic and international), roughly 1 in 10 students were from India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Nepal, or Bangladesh in that academic year.

The impact on revenue and operations

Should international commencements fall again in the 2026/27 September intake, it will be devastating for many UK universities. On 19 May, the recruitment firm published an analysis of revenue sources across the higher education sector and found that “22 universities now earn more than half of all their income from overseas tuition … eight years ago, none did.”

Forecasts for coming years

The Office for Students (OfS), which is the independent regulator of higher education in England, released its on 14 May. Key inputs for the analysis are the self-reports and projections of 279 participating UK universities.

Of those universities, more than a third (36%) reported an operating deficit for 2024/25. On average, providers expect a small worsening of the financial picture in 2025/26 and then a rebound in 2026/27.

The OfS is skeptical of this forecast:

“Our assessment is that this projected recovery remains based on overly optimistic assumptions, particularly in the context of continued volatility in student recruitment.”

It notes that among responding universities, “non-UK entrants fell by -7.7% [in 2024/25], which was -9% below [providers’] forecast.”

Despite this decline, responding universities reported to the OfS that their forecast is for international undergraduate numbers to increase by +24.6% and postgraduate enrolments by +26.8% between 2024/25 and 2028/29.

The OfS warns that it would be financially imprudent to operate according to such an expectation, noting that “recent published visa data from the Home Office suggests a possible renewed decline in non-UK student numbers, particularly from key markets such as India and China.” The chart below is pulled from the report, and you’ll see that beginning in the fall of 2025 – as the BCA thresholds began to affect recruitment – international visa applications began to soften.

The OfS presented three financial scenarios in the report that “could happen if recruitment changes and providers take no mitigating action.”

Scenario 1 assumes no growth in international and domestic enrolments, Scenario 2 anticipates a modest reduction, and Scenario 3 describes a larger reduction of enrolments. The OfS summarises:

“Under the ‘no growth’ scenario, which assumes flat student recruitment from 2025/26 onwards, cumulative net income losses relative to forecast could reach £2.7 billion by 2028/29. Under this scenario 163 providers, representing 58.4% of the sector, would report a deficit. In the most severe scenario modelled, cumulative income losses increase to £4.2 billion, with deficits reported by up to 196 providers (70.3% of the sector as a whole).”

The report concludes: “Variations in student recruitment in 2024/25 and 2025/26 are prominent in the financial challenges facing the sector. Further volatility in recruitment, in 2026/27 and beyond, could present further significant challenges.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Foreign enrolments in UK higher education dipped again in fall 2025”
• “Narrowing bands of compliance: How the UK’s new RAG system will impact international student recruitment”
• “UK’s stiffening compliance regime already having an impact on international student recruitment”

The post UK universities bracing for a further decline in international enrolments appeared first on 91ɬ��Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The latter development is bound to have widening impacts across the world as the strait is a notably narrow maritime passage through which approximately 20% of the world’s daily oil and liquefied natural gas shipments flow. A closure of any duration will cause supply chain shortages and surging energy prices, and could even threaten global economic stability.

It has been hard not to notice the early projections of that widening economic instability over the past couple of weeks. In the , for example, “When the war in Iran started…Asia expected to see serious, gradual impacts from losing access to a huge portion of the world’s oil and gas. But the conflict’s economic and social impacts have hit the region harder and faster than officials and experts expected.”

Or from : “Losing almost 20% of global oil supply leads to shortages, rationing, with effects that go far beyond demand destruction from higher prices. Around two-thirds of global oil consumption is transport-related, and diesel is the backbone of commercial logistics, agriculture, and parts of industry, so disruption would hit the economy through multiple channels.”

It seems clear that those impacts will be felt unevenly, with some global regions, notably Asia, more impacted as those supply chains and energy supplies are more directly affected by a disruption in Gulf shipping. Other regions, such as North America, are expected to be less affected. What is clear, however, is that such a significant change in global energy supply will unleash a new type of inflationary pressure on global markets, as rising fuel costs drive up prices across the global economy.

Those price effects have been particularly visible over the past month with respect to air travel. Around the world, carriers are adding fuel surcharges or otherwise raising fares to keep pace with rising fuel costs. Some are also cutting back on routes to better ensure that flights operate closer to capacity. There are also a growing number of reports projecting a shortage in jet fuel for at least this quarter and next, which could lead to further flight reductions and will only heighten the upward pressure on airfares.

“Much of the world’s jet fuel is refined in Asia; South Korea is the world’s No. 1 exporter,” reports . “But much of the crude that Asian countries use to make jet fuel comes from the Middle East…Even if the strait does reopen for good, and soon, it will take weeks for oil and jet fuel trapped by the strait’s closure to reach customers in Europe and Asia.”

To make that a little more concrete, the benchmark European jet fuel price for the week ending 24 April was US$1,478 per tonne, which compares to the per-tonne rate of US$831 before the war began. Airline pricing policy is changing quickly as a result, with carriers often levying fixed or route-specific fuel surcharges. In some cases, airfares have roughly doubled (or more) since February.

On top of those direct impacts of rising fuel costs and/or shortages of jet fuel, tens of thousands of flights have been cancelled or rerouted around key air travel hubs in the Gulf region, further adding to the disruption and upward pressure on airfares.

How are students affected?

It is too early to say how that global pricing disruption, or the prospect of a deepening economic impact, will impact student mobility.

Based on historical patterns, we might imagine that students travelling for longer-term travel – such as a degree programme or K-12 studies of a year or more – are less likely to be deterred in their study plans this year. But those same historical patterns suggest that enrolment in shorter-term courses, such as summer language programmes, could be more heavily affected.

When asked for their perspective on an EnglishUSA online forum, member language schools reported a mixed outlook for the summer season. “No one has explicitly referenced high airfare as a reason for not enrolling in courses this summer,” said one. “One partner did mention higher flight costs than anticipated, but that did not impact plans to attend our summer sessions. We’ve also had some partners indirectly reference ‘global affairs’ as a reason for not sending students this year, without mentioning flights specifically.”

“One of our partners cited the war, rising costs, and current global uncertainty as their reason for backing out of a summer special programme,” said another. “So, yes, we are seeing a negative impact.”

English UK Chief Executive Jodie Gray adds, “We have heard anecdotal reports from members that they’re seeing some cancellations from individual students/groups, and there’s concern that the situation may worsen as we move towards the summer.

English UK is running a monthly barometer of our members to monitor the impact of the war in the Middle East on their businesses. At this time of year, it’s very much a tipping point. There is a sense of uncertainty about what will unfold over the coming months as we head into the crucial summer season. What is clear is that the UK ELT sector is very much open for business as normal.”

For additional background, please see:

• “As Iran retaliates across the Middle East, schools close, students worry, and institutions reassess transnational education“

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