QS describes “a gradual reshaping of Indian student mobility by 2030” where the Big Four destinations remain central but with very different positions on the leaderboard. The UK is projected to overtake Canada and the US as the top destination for Indian students. Otherwise, key destinations in the EU are projected to see the fastest growth in Indian enrolments over the rest of this decade – albeit from a smaller base.

Further: “With transnational education and international branch campuses set to expand and mature in India, we could see further mobility changes,” cautions the report. “By 2030, significant volumes of Indian students may study at the branch campuses of international institutions, rather than travelling overseas.”

The overall picture is one of a broadening and more balanced distribution of Indian students, both within the Big Four and otherwise. While Canada and the US are both projected to see their Indian enrolments decrease through 2030, they continue host significant numbers. Germany is projected to see the largest gains with a forecast to nearly double its Indian enrolment, at which point it will have surpassed Australia as the fourth-largest host of Indian students.

“Demand from Indian students looking to study in the ‘Big Four’ is expected to remain substantial,” says QS. “But students’ choices are likely to be shaped by affordability, visa policy, post-study work opportunities and perceptions of long-term value.”

We recently highlighted the continuing strong growth of India’s middle class, and in particular its expansion outside of the major cities of Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, and Hyderabad as people move to smaller cities to escape high costs of living.

We noted as well that India’s middle-class families are cautious, careful, and looking for value for money. Where the affluent class is able to make decisions based on rankings and other markers of prestige, the middle class is more interested in institutions in destinations with welcoming policies, lower tuition and living costs, and strong post-graduate outcomes.

These are some of the same drivers that we see reflected in the QS analysis which concludes that, “Institutions in established destinations will need to work harder to defend their position, while universities in fast-growing markets have an opportunity to build visibility with Indian students looking for credible alternatives.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Changing landscape for student recruitment in India calls for new strategies“
• “The questions families are actually asking: Inside the student advising conversation in 2026“
• “What is happening to student mobility flows between the Global South and Global North?“

The post The outlook for Indian student mobility through 2030 appeared first on 91ɬ��Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The goal is 320,000

The new record goes some way to the Taiwanese government’s aim to attract 320,000 international students by 2030, but foreign enrolment will have to more than double to meet this target. Taiwan’s population is ageing rapidly: about 1 in 5 Taiwanese is now aged 65+. An influx of foreign students and workers is necessary to sustain Taiwan’s higher education institutions, increase the working-age cohort, strengthen public infrastructure, and keep Taiwan competitive with other economies.

Vietnam is fuelling the rise

Nearly 4 in 10 international students in Taiwan (38%) are from Vietnam. Of the roughly 53,000 Vietnamese students in Taiwan, about half are in degree studies. Vietnam sent 11,800 new students to Taiwan in 2025/26, a major increase over the previous year.

The top five sending markets for Taiwan in 2025/26 are:

• Vietnam (52,970, +33% y-o-y)
• Indonesia (18,740, -3%)
• Malaysia (8,740, -10%)
• Japan (8,730, -1%)
• Philippines (5,540, +24%)

Other growth markets include Myanmar (4,430, +24) and India (2,830, +12%). Of the top 20 markets for Taiwanese institutions, just under half grew in 2025/26.

Taiwan is very reliant on Vietnamese enrolments – and these are continuing to increase. Had Vietnamese numbers not increased, Taiwan’s total international enrolment growth would have nearly halved from +17% to about +9%.

The importance of semiconductors

Taiwan produces more than 60% of global semiconductors and over 90% of the most advanced chips, according to the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. Given the importance of these chips to countries around the world, this is a key competitive advantage. Semiconductors are a main draw for international students, and it is likely why:

• The composition of students from many top markets for Taiwan is more and more concentrated in degree studies.

• There is such strong growth from Vietnam. The Vietnamese government has an explicit strategy to build its semiconductor industry called the “National Strategy for the Development of Vietnam’s Semiconductor Industry to 2030 with a vision to 2050.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Taiwan ramps up international recruiting efforts with expanded work rights and scholarships”
• “Asian destinations show their strength in latest ranking of student cities”
• “Taiwan is close to reaching its pre-pandemic benchmark for international enrolment”

The post Taiwan’s international enrolment up by 17% in 2025/26 appeared first on 91ɬ��Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Today the session starts somewhere else. The student still arrives with a list. But the first question now usually comes from the parent, and it is rarely about a university at all. Will this degree pay back the years and the money? Will it still be relevant when my child graduates? Will artificial intelligence make it obsolete before the loan is repaid?

I have heard versions of these three questions in counselling rooms in Chandigarh, Manila, Lagos, and Bogota. They are asked quietly, sometimes almost apologetically, but they are serious questions, and they shape family decisions worth billions of dollars every year. They have also quietly changed what good student advising looks like.

Why the counselling room matters

It is easy to underestimate how much of international education still runs through a single conversation between a family and an adviser. According to the American International Recruitment Council, 44% of international students rely on recruitment agents to help them decide what and where to study. And the reason they are in that room has changed too. Career development is now the number one motivator for studying abroad, cited by 67% of students in IDP’s Emerging Futures research. Students are not just buying an experience any more. They are buying a working future.

That places advisers at a point of real leverage. The counselling conversation is where family hopes meet market reality, often for the first time. When expectations shift, advisers feel it before institutions do, and long before policy makers do. Which is why what we are hearing in those rooms now deserves attention.

From prestige to proof

When we ran the fieldwork for the this year, covering 4,812 agents, students, institution leaders and employers across 25 countries, one pattern came through more strongly than any other: families have stopped asking for prestige and started asking for proof.

In South Asia, 89% of recruitment agents told us their top request from institutions is now skill-mapped programme documentation, not brochures. In North America, agents named post-study visa clarity and programme-level outcome data as the top two concerns students bring to them, at 78% and 71%. Across regions, parents increasingly ask employment questions before they ask admission questions.

The shift makes sense once you see the counselling room from the family’s side. A ranking describes an institution. But a family is not buying an institution. They are buying one specific degree, and they want to know what happens to the people who finish it. Institution-level averages do not answer that. Programme-level outcomes do, and families have worked this out faster than much of the sector has.

The safety net that isn’t there

For a long time, advising had a comfortable answer to the anxiety behind these questions: choose a good university, and if the job market changes, you can always reskill later. Our research suggests that answer no longer holds.

Across OECD countries, only 8% of adults take part in formal, accredited learning in a given year, and the open online courses that were supposed to close the gap complete at a median rate of 12.6%. Meanwhile, 53% of the technical skills a graduate learns in year one are judged obsolete within three years. Skills are going out of date roughly six times faster than the system replaces them. Reskilling after work exists, but as a safety net for an entire generation, it is thin. Families who press on curriculum quality before enrolment, rather than trusting the system to patch things later, are being rational.

What is more encouraging is what employers told us they actually hire on. In our survey, 73% of employers said they hire recent international graduates primarily for durable skills, things like communication, judgment, ethical behaviour, and the ability to work across cultures, rather than for a specific technical stack. Technical tools change. These capabilities compound. For an adviser, that is a genuinely useful message to carry into a conversation with an anxious parent: the degree that protects your child is not the one with the most fashionable specialisation, it is the one that builds the skills that survive the tools.

Will AI make it obsolete?

We put that exact fear under a microscope in this year’s Barometer. Comparing internationally-mobile graduates against domestically-educated peers in the same fields, employers placed 71% of the internationally-mobile group in AI-augmented roles, work where AI expands what one person can do rather than replacing them, against 54% for domestic graduates. Only 6% of the internationally-mobile group sat in roles at material AI-displacement risk. For domestic graduates in the same fields, that figure was 14%, over twice as high. PwC’s analysis of nearly a billion job postings found the same pattern at market scale: workers with AI skills now command a 56% wage premium globally, more than double what it was a year earlier.

None of this makes the advantage automatic. It is built on the durable skills, the cross-cultural fluency and the sequenced curriculum design that produced it in the first place. But it does mean an adviser can answer a parent’s hardest question with a number instead of a reassurance.

What good advising looks like now

None of this requires advisers to become labour economists. In our work with counselling teams, the practices that are working are simple ones.

The first is to ask institutions for programme-level employment data, in writing, rather than settling for institution-level claims. Institutions that have this data increasingly share it, and the act of asking signals what families now expect.

The second is to talk to parents about durable skills directly. Parents understand instinctively that communication, adaptability and integrity matter at work. Naming them as the core of a degree’s value, with evidence, answers the AI question far better than reassurance does.

The third is to screen recommended programmes for work-integrated learning and international cohorts. Internships, placements and genuinely mixed classrooms are where durable skills form, and they show up later in employment outcomes. Arizona State University’s National Work-Integrated Learning Accelerator now generates 1.8 million experiential-learning hours per student cohort. In the Netherlands, international graduates who complete structured cross-cultural programmes actually out-earn their domestic peers, 48% of them clear €55,000 a year against 44% of domestic graduates in the same bracket. Programmes built this way are not hard to find once an adviser starts asking for them by name.

The fourth is simply to keep the post-study visa picture current for every destination, because in several markets it has become the first question, not the last.

Advising as trust infrastructure

There is one more finding from our study worth sitting with. Among UK-bound students we surveyed, 64% said they would still choose the UK despite recent visa changes, provided programme-level employment data was transparent. Read that carefully: even in a market facing policy headwinds, transparency holds demand. Families are not asking for perfect conditions. They are asking to see the evidence and decide for themselves.

That, to me, is the real story of how counselling is changing. The adviser’s role is shifting from gatekeeper of options to interpreter of evidence. It is less glamorous than selling dreams, and considerably more valuable. Students get decisions they can defend at the kitchen table. Institutions that publish honest outcomes get rewarded for it. And the sector gets something it badly needs, which is trust built one family conversation at a time.

The questions parents ask in counselling rooms are harder than they were five years ago. That is not a problem to be managed. It is the clearest sign we have that families are taking the decision seriously, and the sector should answer them in kind.

– Dr Priya Ranganathan is research director at MSM Unify, where she leads the company’s global research programme, including the annual MSM Unify Global Skills Barometer, a study of agents, students, institution leaders and employers across 25 countries. MSM Unify is a global education platform supporting institutions, students, and channel partners across international education markets. MSM Unify helps institutions strengthen student recruitment, enrolment management, and education delivery through technology, services, and global market expertise.

For additional background, please see:

• Readers who want to explore contemporary counselling issues more closely should consider , newly released by 91ɬ��Academy in partnership with Successful Graduate
• “Global agent survey reveals international students’ top concerns are visa uncertainty and affordability“
• “What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad“

The post The questions families are actually asking: Inside the student advising conversation in 2026 appeared first on 91ɬ��Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The latest figures from the Korean Immigration Service put the number of international students in South Korea at 314,400 as of February 2026. More than a third (115,140) are from Vietnam; another quarter (78,530) come from China. The vast majority (76% or 238,905 students) are enrolled in higher education institutions, with the balance (roughly 75,500) in Korean-language studies.

With that growth trajectory firmly established, important changes are taking shape in Korea, including greater attention to the sustainability and quality of education and to the international student experience.

reported earlier this year, for example: “South Korea’s universities are entering a new phase of internationalisation. In a recent shift, several institutions have moved beyond offering English-medium tracks and have begun establishing entire departments and majors exclusively for international students.

“For decades, internationalisation has been framed through integration. International students were expected to enter existing programmes, adapt to institutional norms and participate within shared academic spaces. Even when English-medium instruction expanded, it was presented as a mechanism for inclusion, a way of lowering barriers while maintaining institutional coherence.

“The current shift departs from this logic. Programmes designed exclusively for international students introduce structured differentiation within the university itself. They are not merely parallel in language or support provision. They are parallel in design. Admissions criteria, curricular content, pedagogical expectations and career pathways may all diverge.”

adds that, even as Korean institutions are being encouraged to continue to expand foreign enrolments, the country’s Ministry of Education is already moving to introduce new quality controls: “In the near term, it plans to impose sanctions on universities that fail to screen international students properly. Over the longer term, it aims to revamp its internationalisation certification program to better reflect universities’ actual capabilities.”

A particular area of concern is the Korean-language proficiency of visiting students and how that relates to student retention and success. The Ministry of Education recommends at least a Level 3 on the Test of Proficiency in Korean (TOPIK) for foreign students seeking admission to a Korean university. The Korean Council for University Education has reported, however, that just over half of the international students currently in Korea fall below that language proficiency benchmark. “The issue is structural,” explains a report in . “Admission decisions are largely left to institutional discretion, and universities face no direct penalties for enrolling students who do not meet the ministry’s guidelines.”

At the same time, there are growing reports of additional measures that institutions are taking to assist visiting students in integrating more effectively into Korean life, including mentoring or peer supports, socio-cultural programmes, or local outreach or volunteer opportunities.

“Korea has already proven that it is good at attracting international students,” Rezia Usman, regional director of the office of international affairs at Woosong University, said to Korea JoongAng Daily. “The challenge now is making sure those students feel they are truly learning the [local] language and culture while universities also help them build their careers in Korea.”

Plans to stay

Those challenges around integration of foreign students – and the need for expanded language and social supports – sit in contrast to the findings of a recent study from the Korean Educational Development Institute. It found that, as of 2023, nearly two-thirds (63%) of international students in Korea said that they wanted to stay in the country after graduation. That was up from 2017, at which point 41% indicated they wanted to stay.

Of those planning to stay on, 35% were hoping to find a job in Korea, while another 27% wanted to continue their studies.

The Institute also found that nearly half (42%) of the graduates of two- or three-year colleges in Korea earned at least 3 million won per month (US$2,110) as of 2023 (up from 15% who earned at that level as of 2021). Roughly a third of bachelor’s degree holders and 44% of master’s programme graduates also earned above that threshold as of 2023.

A separate study from the Ministry of Data and Statistics found that as of May 2025 roughly 56,000 foreign students in Korea were also working during their studies. Nearly all (83%) worked in part-time jobs in the retail, accommodation, or food services sectors, with most earning less than 2 million won per month (US$1,406).

A related report in adds: “International students in Korea may take part-time jobs if they meet requirements including academic performance and Korean-language proficiency. The permitted working hours and types of employment vary depending on their degree program, language ability, and immigration status … Because their visas require them to remain enrolled and prioritise their studies, many are employed on temporary or daily contracts rather than in regular full-time positions.”

For additional background, please see:

• “South Korea hits its 300,000 student target two years ahead of schedule“
• “Annual student city ranking underlines continued ascent of Asian destinations“

The post After years of growth, Korea faces the challenge of better integrating and retaining international students appeared first on 91ɬ��Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

The answer used to be pretty simple: the Big Four. Just a couple of years ago, Australia, Canada, the UK, and the US welcomed more than 70% of all Indian students abroad, offering a range of quality study opportunities, post-study work rights, and the possibility of immigration.

But a combination of factors is changing (1) the shape of Indian student mobility, (2) the drivers of that mobility, and (3) the profile of Indian students most likely to consider study abroad.

Weakening demand for Big Four destinations

Readers of 91ɬ��Monitor are well aware of policies that are making it more difficult for students from the Global South to study in Australia, Canada, the UK, and US. In brief, these include reduced incentives for immigration, changes to work rights, high visa rejection rates, steeper visa application fees and/or other costs of study, and high costs of living. Some of the following statistics indicate the effect of policies that discourage Indian students from applying to Big Four countries at this time:

• High visa rejection rates: 61% in the US (2025), 62% in Canada (Q1 2026), and 60% in Australia (February 2026);
• Declining visa applications: for example, in Canada, Indian study permit applications fell from 35% of the total in 2023 to 17% in 2025;
• Fewer new students: for example, commencements fell by -33% in the UK between 2022/23 and 2024/25, -5.5% in Australia in 2025 versus 2024, and -44% in the US for F-1 visas in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024.

Other destinations gaining share

Indian students are diverting their interest to alternative destinations. From 2024 to 2025, Indian enrolments rose by:

• +21% in Russia;
• +20% in Germany;
• +20% in Ireland;
• +18% in New Zealand;
• +17% in France;
• +5% in Italy.

New drivers of Indian outbound mobility

India’s affluent and middle classes are growing rapidly. Goldman Sachs estimates that the “affluent” cohort nearly tripled from 24 million people in 2015 to about 60 million in 2023, and the firm predicts that this cohort will reach 100 million by 2027.

As for the middle class, Oxford Economics notes:

“India’s middle class is the second largest [after China] in emerging markets at just over 27 million households, but it’s roughly the same size as Brazil’s, which has a population seven times smaller. By 2029, India’s middle class will more than double in size to reach 62 million households.”

The size and growth of a country’s middle class is important to all global product and service companies because it indicates robust and burgeoning purchasing power. Middle-class consumers are able to go beyond satisfying basic needs (e.g., food and shelter) to seeking quality and prestigious brands. They are thus more likely to be interested in – and able to pay for – programmes at foreign universities that result in well-regarded and internationally recognised degrees.

The following chart shows the rapid forecasted rise of the middle class in India (as you can see, the Philippines, Vietnam, Egypt, and Thailand are also notable in this regard).

What’s the catch?

If we move beyond middle-class statistical indicators, the picture becomes more complex. As marketing intelligence firm notes of India’s middle class:

“Simply put, prudence in everything so as to feel safe, secure and comfortable. Always aspirational but rarely overambitious. This cohort is perhaps becoming more inscrutable and not as easy to please as they perhaps have been in the past.”

India’s middle-class households may be moving from “need” to “want” in their purchasing mindset, but that doesn’t mean that “want” always translates to “buy.” Indian fintech company estimates that India’s “middle-class salaried household” spending is spread across three categories:

• “39% goes to obligatory expenses – things like loan [payments], insurance premiums, and rent. These are the non-negotiables that hit before anything else.
• 32% goes to necessities – groceries, utilities, fuel, medical expenses, school fees. Things you need but have some control over.
• 29% goes to discretionary spending – dining out, entertainment, subscriptions, clothing, travel, and everything else.”

SalarySe explains:

“That 29% discretionary figure sounds generous until you remember it’s the last call on a budget that’s already been carved up by rent, [loan payments], school fees, and petrol. In practice, it’s where the most emotional spending happens, and where the most guilt tends to follow.”

As a result, India’s middle-class families are necessarily cautious, careful, and looking for value for money. Where the affluent class is able to make decisions based on rankings and other markers of prestige, the middle class is more interested in institutions in destinations with welcoming policies, lower tuition and living costs, and strong post-graduate outcomes. It may take more time and resources to convince families in this cohort that a university is worth their money.

This is especially true given that the number of quality higher education institutions in India is rising. India stands out as the country that sent more universities (eight) into the 2026 World University Rankings for the first time than any other country – and that is in a field of 106 countries. Over a span of 12 years, India’s higher education system has risen more quickly in the rankings than any other G20 country.

India is also notable for its interest in partnerships with foreign universities and transnational education arrangements such as branch campuses and joint programmes. The Indian government has official strategies aimed at reducing brain drain, and it is at least as interested in partnering with foreign universities and attracting international students as it is in sending students abroad.

What does it all mean?

India’s middle class is expanding the most significantly outside of major metropolises such as Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, and Hyderabad, as people move to smaller cities to escape high costs of living. More families are now able to consider study abroad in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities and rural areas than in the past.

Because characteristics of the middle class will vary across cities and regions, working with vetted, proven education agents and forming relationships with top Indian universities and schools is more crucial today than ever. Ensuring that agents are reputable – with strong track records and demonstrated ethics – is key, especially for institutions in Big Four destinations where visa rejection rates are high.

Just as important is developing proof points on the institutional website, through alumni and student ambassadors, and in all communications that enrolling with your university delivers amazing value for money. This means collecting data on post study outcomes; being completely transparent with costs; and offering distinguishing features such as applications assistance, comprehensive support services, internships, and institution-employer connections.

Quite simply, Indian families have been spooked by policy developments in the Big Four. They will need more reassurance, proof, and support from institutions and agents alike. They have more options – as enrolment data in alternative destinations clearly shows. As a result, India represents a more discerning – while still very promising – source of international students.

For additional background, please see:

• “What is happening to student mobility flows between the Global South and Global North?”
• “The number of Indian students abroad fell in 2025”
• “How post-study work rights can make or break the return on investment for study abroad”

The post Changing landscape for student recruitment in India calls for new strategies appeared first on 91ɬ��Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Roughly 380,000 foreign students from nearly 200 countries were in China during the 2024/25 academic year, according to a senior Chinese education official quoted in the . While this is down from nearly 500,000 before the COVID-19 pandemic, it is a huge increase (+96%) from the 255,700 low in 2021. China closed its borders for longer than any other major study abroad destination or economy during the pandemic, opening up again only in January 2023.

This steady post-pandemic increase contrasts with the -20% drop in Chinese students abroad in 2025 (570,000) compared with 2019. There is also a rising trend of Chinese foreign-educated graduates returning home for studies (535,600 in 2025, suggesting about a 90% return rate).

Part of the plan

The uptick in international students in China is intentional. The 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–30) includes the prioritisation of the “Study in China” brand. Speaking with the China Daily in May, Wang Daquan, a Ministry of Education spokesperson, said, “We have confidence in that goal [of China becoming one of the world’s most attractive destinations for international students], and we will continue to make efforts to achieve it.”

Of China’s total foreign students in 2024/25, more than half (54%) were seeking a higher education degree. More of than a third (35%) of those degree students were in postgraduate programmes.

In terms of subject preference, more than a quarter (28%) were in engineering degrees.

Asian students dominate

The Ministry of Education reports that in 2024/25, Asian students made up the largest share of foreign enrolment at 61%, while African and European students accounted for about 16% each. Country-level figures have not been released, but top markets in recent years include South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Pakistan. Emerging markets that China invests heavily in developing are in Africa and Belt and Road countries in general.

Why the decline in outbound?

Nous Group principal Matt Durnin estimates that Chinese enrolments across Australia, Canada, the UK and US have fallen by approximately -13% since their peak in 2019/20. Posting on in late-2025, he wrote:

“There are a lot of factors driving the decline, but the one that I think deserves more attention is the rapid improvement of perceptions in the quality of Chinese universities.”

The 2026 QS rankings include 72 Chinese (mainland) institutions, compared with 192 in the US and 90 in the UK, putting China into third place globally. When Hong Kong universities are included, China moves into second place with a total of 99.

Another factor in weakening Chinese demand for study abroad is that the country’s disposable income growth has slowed, and consumers have become more cautious and price-sensitive. In May, consumer spending (measured in terms of retail sales) fell by -0.6% compared with May 2025 – the first year-on-year decline since the pandemic. Chinese consumers are using more of their income to pay off debt, and in a major departure from habits in the 2010s, they are becoming much more interested in discounted and second-hand goods.

Amid these consumer trends – and with so many high-quality Chinese and international universities close at hand – Chinese students have less reason to study abroad than in the 2020s.

The Chinese government wants to see the number of Chinese students enrolled in transnational education programmes to rise from 800,000 to eight million, and it is rapidly expanding international research collaborations, branch campuses, and joint programmes with foreign institutions.

For additional background, please see:

• “Inbound, outbound, and transnational: the landscape for international education in China continues to evolve”
• “China opens up to global STEM talent with new visa class”
• “China leverages higher education capacity with expanded TNE partnerships”
• “China: Two-thirds of new TNE partnerships are with countries outside the Big Four”

The post China in 2026: Slowing outbound student mobility, accelerating inbound momentum appeared first on 91ɬ��Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Students in the region – and farther afield – are becoming aware of Azerbaijani universities’ strengths, especially in medicine, energy, and engineering, and of the relative affordability of tuition.

Azerbaijan’s other advantages include:

• Scholarships;
• Degree recognition across Europe under the Bologna Process and participation in Erasmus+;
• Proximity to Southeastern Europe and Central Asia, and not too far from North Africa, Pakistan, China, and India;
• Languages (Azerbaijani, which is closely related to Turkish; Russian, which has hundreds of millions of speakers across Eastern Europe, Central Asia and parts of Western Asia; and English, which is now a language of instruction in several universities, mostly private);
• Increasing importance as a middle power with ties to Europe, Russia, China, and the US.

The religious characteristics of Azerbaijan are also compelling to Muslim students. More than 90% of Azerbaijanis are Muslim (60/40 spilt between Shia and Sunni), but the state is secular. Citizens and visitors have freedom to practise – or not practise – any religion. A thriving minority population of Jewish Azerbaijanis clustered around the capital (and largest city) of Baku coexists peacefully with the Muslim majority.

While the country enrols a relatively small number of international students, there is solid – and government-endorsed – potential for more. In 2024/25, attended Azerbaijani universities, which represents year-over-year growth of +10% and five-year growth of +70%.

Geopolitical strengths

The world is becoming more multipolar, with power and influence diffused across the US; the European Union; and the BRICS+ (including China, India, Russia , and Brazil as well as six other countries in Africa and the Middle East). Countries that are able to manage multiple economic and diplomatic relationships across geopolitical divisions have a major advantage because they are not dependent on one ally or trading partner.

Azerbaijan is one of those countries. It was once part of Iran, then Russia, until it left the USSR in the 1990s and became independent. Despite rising tensions with Iran and Russia, it maintains diplomacy and trade with those countries. At the same time, Azerbaijan has formal “strategic partnerships” with the US, Türkiye, China, Italy, and Romania.

The US/Iran war and Western sanctions on Russia have elevated Azerbaijan’s importance to European allies because of its vast reserves of crude oil and natural gas. Italy is the top importer of these fossil fuels, but Azerbaijan also sends hundreds of thousands of tons to Romania, Czech Republic, Portugal, Germany, Croatia, Greece, Bulgaria, and Thailand. The main export route flows directly into Turkiye territory via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline.

As Azerbaijan’s , its ability to attract international students and forge educational partnerships with foreign universities increases.

Most students are from Türkiye, but demand is rising in South Asia

The following chart shows the top nationalities represented in Azerbaijani universities. Türkiye, by far Azerbaijan’s closest ally and defence parter, accounts for over a third of the overall international student population.

However, diversification is well underway,

South Asia is a new regional opportunity for Azerbaijan. For example, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka are the fastest-growing markets mainly due to intense student interest in affordable, World Health Organisation-approved (WHO) medical degrees, especially those offered by Azerbaijan Medical University. Medicine and health sciences programmes enrol more than a third of all international students in the country.

Institutions rising in the rankings

This year was historic for Azerbaijani’s education system: nine Azerbaijani universities made QS’s 2026 World University Rankings – six of them for the first time. India and Azerbaijan stand out (in a field of 106 countries) for having the highest number of universities enter the ranking for the first time.

Another first was Azerbaijan’s highest placing university, Baku State (BSU), having its petroleum engineering programme appear in QS’s top 100 subject rankings. BSU also had several other programmes in the top 500.

Across the higher education system, seven of the country’s universities were represented across 22 subject fields, with many improving their positions over 2025.

Affordability

International tuition fees vary across Azerbaijan’s over 50 public and private institutions, but most international students , and to budget for up to US$600 in living expenses. To get a study visa, they need to show proof of funds of at least US$5,000.

Private institutions offer more English-taught programmes, and these are priced higher (up to US$8,000).

Government support for internationalisation

The “State Strategy for the Development of Education in the Republic of Azerbaijan,” plan, launched in 2028, prioritises internationalisation. are:

• Establishing more dual-degree programs between Azerbaijani higher education and prestigious foreign institutions;
• Funding doctoral education abroad to build research-oriented academic staff for Azerbaijani universities.

Some of most prominent examples of internationalisation include “joint universities” overseen by the Ministry of Science and Education but launched through bilateral agreements with countries such as France, Italy, and Türkiye. Joint universities:

• Lead to qualifications recognised by both countries;
• Promote student and faculty exchanges and collaborative research – especially in engineering in energy (oil and gas) fields.

Azerbaijan’s joint universities include:

• (UFAZ) in Baku. This institution was founded in 2016 through collaboration between the Azerbaijan State Oil and Industry University (ASOIU) and the University of Strasbourg and University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne. UFAZ offers many courses, but specialisations are petroleum and chemical engineering.

• (ADA), whose campus opened in October 2025 in Baku, is a partnership with five Italian institutions: Luiss Guido Carli University, University of Bologna, Politecnico di Milano, Sapienza University of Rome, and University of Padua. Two main schools are design and architecture and agriculture and food sciences, but other programmes are also available.

• (TAU) in Baku specialises in education, health sciences, engineering, and informatics.

Scholarships

The government has launched a “” (SIA) portal to promote the country to international students as well as a major new five-year scholarship programme beginning in 2026/27: . This programme provides 100 students with full scholarships covering tuition fees, international flights, monthly allowance, medical insurance, and visa and registration fees. It is open to students from 100 countries.

There are also scholarships that promote two-way mobility, including the Hökumətlərarası Təqaüd Proqramları (intergovernmental) scholarships for Azerbaijani students wanting to study abroad and for foreign students wanting to pursue higher education in Azerbaijan. Scholarship recipients have their tuition and accommodation covered and a stipend for living expenses. Partner countries include China, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Romania, and Russia.

Finally, participate in Erasmus+ and Germany’s DAAD exchange programmes.

Big ambition

In 2024, at an event called “Opportunities of International Education in Azerbaijan,” Deputy Minister of Science and Education Hasan Hasanli that Azerbaijan’s goal was to host 75,000 foreign students by 2026.

There is no indication that this target has been met, but growth of 70% over the past five years, new demand from Asia, and the rapid introduction of joint universities and programmes suggests that expansion of Azerbaijan’s international student population is well underway.

For additional background, please see:

• “Kazakhstan sets its sights on being a regional hub for international students”
• “What students want: The top decision factors for study abroad”
• “From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen”

The post Ascending in world university rankings and highly affordable, Azerbaijan is strengthening its offer to international students appeared first on 91ɬ��Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

It is no coincidence that the Key Five are all emerging countries in the Global South, where large proportions of students are open to emigrating, temporarily or permanently, because of limited local opportunities. This makes immigration officials tend to question whether study visa applicants are genuine students – i.e., interested in quality education, a high-skilled job, and remaining compliant with visa conditions – or individuals with little intent to study and great intent to migrate in any way they can. Unfortunately, many genuine students from the Global South are disadvantaged in their applications because of where they are from.

The impact of the visa rejection trend for students from emerging economies in Asia and Africa could be enormous across the global international education landscape – and beyond. Already, it is spurring fewer visa grants, reduced recruiting in high-risk markets, and more withdrawals from students eager to avoid a rejection on their student profile. Not surprisingly, commencements are trending down in leading study destinations, and this will pressure overall enrolments in the years ahead.

In this article, we will look at Key Five origin countries with regards to:

• Their importance to overall enrolments across the Big Four;
• Recent study visa rejection rates;
• Commencement trends (i.e., the volume of new students provided a study visa allowing them to enrol in a Big Four education institution).

Contribution to overall international student numbers

According to the most recent available enrolment data, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Nigeria, and Pakistan compose anywhere from 30% to 40%+ of the entire international student body in Big Four destinations.

Visa rejection rates for the Key Five

Having looked at the huge presence of Key Five students in the total international student populations of the Big Four, we’ll turn to recent visa refusal trends (where official data are available).

Bangladesh: Nearly three-quarters (73%) of Bangladeshi applicants for US F-1 visas were turned away in 2025. Bangladeshi students have in recent years been very likely to receive a visa for Australia (about a 5% rejection rate in 2024/25), but in February 2026, more than half (51%) of offshore applicants from Bangladesh were refused.

India: Indian students, who represent either the #1 or #2 source market across the Big Four, are now quite likely to be refused a study visa in those destinations. Rejection rates were 61% in the US (2025), 80% in Canada (Q2 2025), and 60% in Australia (February 2026). While only 7.5% were denied a sponsored study visa in the UK in Q4 2025–Q1 2026, this this was up from less than 4% in winter 2024/25.

Nepal: More than 8 in 10 (81%) Nepali applicants were rejected for a US F-1 visa in 2025, and in February 2026, the Australian study visa rejection rate for Nepal soared to 65%. Interestingly, Nepali students were more likely to be approved for a UK sponsored study visa in winter 2025/26 than in winter 2024/25, bucking the general trend for emerging markets (see chart below).

Nigeria: Since December 2025, Nigerians have been included in an expanded travel ban announced by the US administration, along with dozens of other countries (mostly in Africa and Asia). In the UK, sponsored study rejections for Nigerian students used to be rare (less than 5%), but in winter 2025/26, 20% of Nigerian applicants were turned away. In Canada, between 70–80% were refused a study permit in in 2025.

Pakistan: More than 70% of Pakistanis were refused an F-1 visa in the US in 2026, and more than 6 in 10 offshore applicants from Pakistan were denied an Australian study visa in February 2026. Like Nigerians, Pakistani students applying for a sponsored study visa in the UK saw their rejection rate spike massively in winter 2025/26: increasing from 5.6% to 41% year-over-year.

These rejection rates for Key Five countries represent an absolutely huge number of potential students turned away.

What is happening to commencements?

Key Five commencements (new student entrants) are falling across the Big Four, with less than a handful of exceptions.
 
A striking example is F-1 visa issuances in the US in July/August of 2024 compared with July/August 2025. The percentages in the table below are based on our analysis of data from the US Department of State. It bears mentioning that in September of 2025 (not shown in the table), F-1 commencements fell further for Bangladesh (-69%), Nepal (-96%), Nigeria (-33%), and Pakistan (-9%) compared with September 2024.

In the UK, the following chart from HESA shows the dramatic drop-off in Indian (turquoise) and Nigerian (navy blue) commencements between 2023/24 and 2024/25: -13% and -33%, respectively. Over the span of two years (2022/23 to 2024/25), the declines were even more serious: -33% for India (126,580 to 94,955) and -132% for Nigeria (53,790 to 23,160).

In Canada, new student arrivals (from all nationalities) fell from 208,750 in 2024 to 115,120 in 2025. In January to April 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, arrivals were down -73% to about 200,000. There is no publicly available government information for specific markets, but the Times of India reports that between January and August 2025, Canada issued just 9,955 new study permits to Indian students.

In Australia, overall commencements fell by about -15% between 2024 and 2025, but this decline was concentrated in sectors other than higher education (the number of new international students in Australian universities edged up slightly in that time period). There was more of a mixed bag of commencement trends for the Key Five than in Canada, the UK, and US. Between 2024 and 2025, Indian and Pakistani commencements fell by -3.5% and -33%, respectively, while Nepal was up +33.5% and Bangladesh +33%.

The implications will stretch beyond international education

Our Key Five markets – Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Nigeria, and Pakistan – can be viewed as roughly representative of what is happening to mobility influences and flows between the Global South and Big Four destinations. They serve to show how immigration policies (and/or policy effects) in the Big Four are affecting demand from top non-EU markets. These policies, especially if they stretch on in time, could lead to:

• An intensification of existing challenges for the operations of hundreds of universities, colleges, and schools across the Big Four. Those institutions are often highly reliant on international student tuition amid declining domestic enrolments and/or public funding. Chinese commencements (which, for decades, were an important source of overall growth) are falling, and emerging markets in Asia and Africa have helped to mitigate the impact.

• Alternative destinations gaining a greater share of the world’s internationally mobile students (this is already happening – see From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen for background).



• A decline in the economic contribution of international education in the Big Four.



• A weakening of innovation and productivity in Big Four economies. India, in particular, contributes a large volume of STEM students and workers to Western nations.



• An erosion of the soft power of the Big Four in the Global South.

Methodological note

Data analyses are based on statistics from:

• The Australian
• (IRCC)
• The UK’s (HESA)
• The in the US

For additional information, please see:

• “UK: International student numbers fall for second year, especially in postgraduate programmes“
• “UK: Sponsored study visa issuances down, rejection rates up, and more“
• “There are more international students in the US than ever in 2025, but commencements are declining“
• “Visa rejections climb in the US for international students from key markets including India“
• “New international student permit approvals for Canada fell below COVID levels in 2025“
• “Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers“
• “Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year“

The post What is happening to student mobility flows between the Global South and Global North?  appeared first on 91ɬ��Monitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.