It is no coincidence that the Key Five are all emerging countries in the Global South, where large proportions of students are open to emigrating, temporarily or permanently, because of limited local opportunities. This makes immigration officials tend to question whether study visa applicants are genuine students – i.e., interested in quality education, a high-skilled job, and remaining compliant with visa conditions – or individuals with little intent to study and great intent to migrate in any way they can. Unfortunately, many genuine students from the Global South are disadvantaged in their applications because of where they are from.

The impact of the visa rejection trend for students from emerging economies in Asia and Africa could be enormous across the global international education landscape – and beyond. Already, it is spurring fewer visa grants, reduced recruiting in high-risk markets, and more withdrawals from students eager to avoid a rejection on their student profile. Not surprisingly, commencements are trending down in leading study destinations, and this will pressure overall enrolments in the years ahead.

In this article, we will look at Key Five origin countries with regards to:

• Their importance to overall enrolments across the Big Four;
• Recent study visa rejection rates;
• Commencement trends (i.e., the volume of new students provided a study visa allowing them to enrol in a Big Four education institution).

Contribution to overall international student numbers

According to the most recent available enrolment data, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Nigeria, and Pakistan compose anywhere from 30% to 40%+ of the entire international student body in Big Four destinations.

Visa rejection rates for the Key Five

Having looked at the huge presence of Key Five students in the total international student populations of the Big Four, we’ll turn to recent visa refusal trends (where official data are available).

Bangladesh: Nearly three-quarters (73%) of Bangladeshi applicants for US F-1 visas were turned away in 2025. Bangladeshi students have in recent years been very likely to receive a visa for Australia (about a 5% rejection rate in 2024/25), but in February 2026, more than half (51%) of offshore applicants from Bangladesh were refused.

India: Indian students, who represent either the #1 or #2 source market across the Big Four, are now quite likely to be refused a study visa in those destinations. Rejection rates were 61% in the US (2025), 80% in Canada (Q2 2025), and 60% in Australia (February 2026). While only 7.5% were denied a sponsored study visa in the UK in Q4 2025–Q1 2026, this this was up from less than 4% in winter 2024/25.

Nepal: More than 8 in 10 (81%) Nepali applicants were rejected for a US F-1 visa in 2025, and in February 2026, the Australian study visa rejection rate for Nepal soared to 65%. Interestingly, Nepali students were more likely to be approved for a UK sponsored study visa in winter 2025/26 than in winter 2024/25, bucking the general trend for emerging markets (see chart below).

Nigeria: Since December 2025, Nigerians have been included in an expanded travel ban announced by the US administration, along with dozens of other countries (mostly in Africa and Asia). In the UK, sponsored study rejections for Nigerian students used to be rare (less than 5%), but in winter 2025/26, 20% of Nigerian applicants were turned away. In Canada, between 70–80% were refused a study permit in in 2025.

Pakistan: More than 70% of Pakistanis were refused an F-1 visa in the US in 2026, and more than 6 in 10 offshore applicants from Pakistan were denied an Australian study visa in February 2026. Like Nigerians, Pakistani students applying for a sponsored study visa in the UK saw their rejection rate spike massively in winter 2025/26: increasing from 5.6% to 41% year-over-year.

These rejection rates for Key Five countries represent an absolutely huge number of potential students turned away.

What is happening to commencements?

Key Five commencements (new student entrants) are falling across the Big Four, with less than a handful of exceptions.
 
A striking example is F-1 visa issuances in the US in July/August of 2024 compared with July/August 2025. The percentages in the table below are based on our analysis of data from the US Department of State. It bears mentioning that in September of 2025 (not shown in the table), F-1 commencements fell further for Bangladesh (-69%), Nepal (-96%), Nigeria (-33%), and Pakistan (-9%) compared with September 2024.

In the UK, the following chart from HESA shows the dramatic drop-off in Indian (turquoise) and Nigerian (navy blue) commencements between 2023/24 and 2024/25: -13% and -33%, respectively. Over the span of two years (2022/23 to 2024/25), the declines were even more serious: -33% for India (126,580 to 94,955) and -132% for Nigeria (53,790 to 23,160).

In Canada, new student arrivals (from all nationalities) fell from 208,750 in 2024 to 115,120 in 2025. In January to April 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, arrivals were down -73% to about 200,000. There is no publicly available government information for specific markets, but the Times of India reports that between January and August 2025, Canada issued just 9,955 new study permits to Indian students.

In Australia, overall commencements fell by about -15% between 2024 and 2025, but this decline was concentrated in sectors other than higher education (the number of new international students in Australian universities edged up slightly in that time period). There was more of a mixed bag of commencement trends for the Key Five than in Canada, the UK, and US. Between 2024 and 2025, Indian and Pakistani commencements fell by -3.5% and -33%, respectively, while Nepal was up +33.5% and Bangladesh +33%.

The implications will stretch beyond international education

Our Key Five markets – Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Nigeria, and Pakistan – can be viewed as roughly representative of what is happening to mobility influences and flows between the Global South and Big Four destinations. They serve to show how immigration policies (and/or policy effects) in the Big Four are affecting demand from top non-EU markets. These policies, especially if they stretch on in time, could lead to:

• An intensification of existing challenges for the operations of hundreds of universities, colleges, and schools across the Big Four. Those institutions are often highly reliant on international student tuition amid declining domestic enrolments and/or public funding. Chinese commencements (which, for decades, were an important source of overall growth) are falling, and emerging markets in Asia and Africa have helped to mitigate the impact.

• Alternative destinations gaining a greater share of the world’s internationally mobile students (this is already happening – see From the Big Four to the Big Fourteen for background).



• A decline in the economic contribution of international education in the Big Four.



• A weakening of innovation and productivity in Big Four economies. India, in particular, contributes a large volume of STEM students and workers to Western nations.



• An erosion of the soft power of the Big Four in the Global South.

Methodological note

Data analyses are based on statistics from:

• The Australian
• (IRCC)
• The UK’s (HESA)
• The in the US

For additional information, please see:

• “UK: International student numbers fall for second year, especially in postgraduate programmes“
• “UK: Sponsored study visa issuances down, rejection rates up, and more“
• “There are more international students in the US than ever in 2025, but commencements are declining“
• “Visa rejections climb in the US for international students from key markets including India“
• “New international student permit approvals for Canada fell below COVID levels in 2025“
• “Australia: Multiple data indicators signal further declines ahead for international student numbers“
• “Australia: Latest enrolment data challenges the government’s assertion of stability for international education this year“

The post What is happening to student mobility flows between the Global South and Global North?  appeared first on 91ɬÂţMonitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Little by little, the wall gets higher

The movement to restrict African nationals from coming to the US began in the summer of 2025, when the administration stopped processing the visas of students (and other nationals) from several countries including Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Libya, Somalia, and Sudan. This list was quickly expanded to include Angola, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Ethiopia, Gabon, the Gambia, Liberia, Malawi, Nigeria, Niger, Senegal, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zimbabwe.

In bluntest terms: Of the 54 countries in Africa, almost half made the travel ban list in the summer of 2025. Currently, African countries account for the lion’s share of all 39 countries on that list.

In January 2026, the government began targeting African students already in the US. Immigration officers were directed to pause visa processing for students from travel-ban countries applying for Optional Practical Training (OPT) and extensions, the H-1B programme, or the work component attached to J-1 visas. That same month, the pause applied to Green Card applicants from 23 African countries, many of which were on the travel ban list.

Now, in June 2026, the US State Department is from 50 consular posts to 20 designated regional hubs. This means all African students will have to travel to one of those 20 hubs to apply for a US study visa and sit for an interview. Some prospective applicants live hundreds of kilometres away from a hub. Reaching a hub may now necessitate flights and staying over in more than one city.

The impact

Policy after policy is now making it nearly impossible for many African students to study in the US. Through visa bans and high rejection rates; immigration restrictions; and now the reduction of visa processing offices, the barriers are mounting for African students hoping to study in the United States.

African markets have been the fastest growing sources of students for US universities in recent years. For example, between 2023/24 and 2024/25, according to , these were the biggest growth stories, including top 20 markets of Nigeria (#8) and Ghana (#14):

• Cameroon: +20.5% to 1,180
• Ethiopia: +10.5 to 3,400
• Tanzania: +11% to 1,140
• Uganda: +15% to 1,500
• Zimbabwe: +42% to 2,700
• Ghana: +36.5% to 12,830
• Nigeria: +9% to 21,850

Overall, African enrolments in US higher education institutions grew by +15% in 2024/25 compared with +5% for Asia, +3% for Europe, and +2.5% for Latin America and the Caribbean.

For additional background, please see:

• “US extends travel ban, Nigeria now included on restricted list“
• “US: Student visa issuances fell by -36% in summer 2025; OPT uncertainty among factors affecting international student demand”

The post US visa processing centres in Africa to be reduced by more than half; only the latest barrier for African students appeared first on 91ɬÂţMonitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Data shows the turbulent nature of the market

The chart below, based on , shows that Nigerian student interest in study abroad rose dramatically between 2021 and 2023, then began dropping, with a significant decline noticeable at the end of 2023 and through the first months of 2024.

Studyportals data shows a marked decrease in Nigerian activity on their platform for all disciplines in March 2024 compared with April 2023. The study fields most affected are Business & Management (-23%) and Applied Sciences (-33%).

Studyportals points out: “As Nigeria is the 4th top source country by volume of student interest for bachelor’s and master’s programmes, this decline is bound to create challenges for universities.”

UK universities the most exposed to risk from falling Nigerian demand

In terms of risk from current trends in Nigerian student demand, UK universities are arguably the most exposed, as (1) they have relied greatly on Nigeria for overall international enrolment growth and (2) a new policy enacted by their government is already having a profound effect on Nigerian student applications.

That policy, which went into effect in January 2024, prevents the family members of international students, other than those in postgraduate research-oriented programmes, from entering the UK on a sponsored study visa. Not coincidentally, there was a 44% decrease in sponsored study applications to the UK in the first three months of 2024 versus those same months in 2023.

Between 2017/18 and 2021/22, the number of Nigerian students in the UK grew from 10,685 to 44,195, a 314% increase and the second highest rate of growth after India (517%). Last year, Nigeria was the third largest market for the UK after China and India.

Particularly popular among Nigerian students have been one-year taught master’s programmes in the UK – but these programmes no longer allow international students to bring their dependants.

In 2022, almost half (45%) of all dependant visas were issued to Nigerian students, while Indian students claimed the next largest share (29%).

Studyportals data shows that Nigerian demand for the UK is down more than it is for other destinations, and Studyportals notes the impact of policy on this trend:

“While the average decline in interest from Nigeria, for the US, across the top 100 subdisciplines for is -12%, for the UK, it is -53%. The decrease is likely linked to the new British government policy that has banned dependent visas, and the announcement of a review of post-graduation work visas. This, combined with the economic struggles that Nigeria is currently facing, has made it quite difficult for Nigerian students to consider studying in the UK, which can be seen in the 76% decrease in visa issuances that has been noted in January 2024 by Enroly Data Insights.”

In terms of absolute Nigerian student demand (Studyportals page views) between April 2023 and March 2024, these are the trends in the destinations hosting the largest numbers of Nigerian students:

• UK: -55%
• Canada: -12%
• US: -13%
• Germany: -7%
• Australia: -21%

Once again, it’s interesting to look at policies when observing the differences between the above declines. Nigeria is now Canada’s fourth largest market (45,965 students), up 322% since 2017. This growth rate suggests that Canadian institutions are definitely vulnerable to the macroeconomic issues challenging Nigerian students’ families. But at the same time, they may gain a competitive edge in Nigeria because of two new developments in Canadian immigration policy:

• The length of work permits for international students graduating with master’s and other advanced degrees is increasing to three years;
• Dependants of international students at the graduate level remain eligible for open work permits (unlike those at the undergraduate level).

What’s more, the study permit approval rate for Nigerian students applying to Canada doubled from 2020 to 2023 to 40%. This is still lower than the average of 60% across all international student applicants, but the doubling will not have gone unnoticed in Nigeria.

Germany, which also experienced a lower relative decline in Nigerian student interest on the Studyportals platform (-7%), has recently increased in-study work rights and is aiming to double the retention rate of foreign graduates by 2030.

As for Australia (-21% in student interest), it is possible that news of record-high visa rejection rates is circulating in Nigeria as it seems to be in Southeast Asian countries. But Nigeria is only Australia’s 32nd largest student market (under 3,000 students), and thus Australian educators are less exposed to risk from this market.

The US policy climate as it relates to international students has been stable in 2024, though as in Australia, visa rejection rates have been surging. Still, IIE data for 2022/23 show that the number of Nigerian students in US colleges and universities grew to 17,640, up 22% from the previous year, and IDP Education shows that the US has moved ahead of the UK, Australia, and Canada as the most preferred destination among international students.

For additional background, please see:

• : Get the latest market intelligence and meet a large selection of potential student recruitment partners from across the African continent.
• “Nigerian economy shows its strength but the national currency is struggling again this year“
• “New report highlights the increasing competition for international students from Sub-Saharan Africa“

The post Data shows a decline in Nigerian student searches for study abroad; UK may be hardest-hit appeared first on 91ɬÂţMonitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Those surging growth indicators are backed by the underlying strength of the Nigerian economy. The latest data from the World Bank again pegs Nigeria as the largest African economy in 2022, a position that the country has now held for five consecutive year after surpassing South Africa in 2018.

After booking year-over-year growth of 8.3%, the World Bank reckons that Nigeria’s nominal GDP was just over US$477 billion in 2022, which is a bit more than 17% of the GDP for the entire continent. In fact, the top three economies in Africa – Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa – accounted for nearly half of the GDP for all of Africa last year. (We should add that Egypt is increasingly challenging for the title of largest economy with more than 12% growth last year and a GDP estimated at US$476 billion.)

Those large and growing economies are expected to boost Africa its the position of the second fastest-growing economic region in the world this year, after only Asia.

Currency woes persist

In spite of those promising macro trends, Nigeria has a continuing challenge with maintaining the value of its national currency, the naira. The country’s foreign exchange reserves are low, and access to foreign exchange is centrally controlled via the Central Bank of Nigeria. At the same time, there is tremendous demand for forex throughout the economy to pay for imported products and services, including for study abroad.

Part of that demand is being met by the so-called parallel market – that is, a black market for foreign exchange trading outside of official central bank channels. But the cost of foreign currency has been rising this year in both official and unofficial markets, due to surging demand from Nigerian families and businesses alongside a significant devaluation of the Nigerian naira that began in June this year.

“In the official market, August started with a bang as the naira reached a high of N789.08/$1 on August 1st,” explains a report from the news site . The currency rallied somewhat through part of August but more recently has fallen off and is again flirting with that 1 August low point. Nairametrics adds that this in turn placed pressure on the inflated exchange rate in the parallel market where: “The naira faced a sharp decline, weakening to N930 to US$1 dollar in the unofficial foreign exchange market.”

We should understand that some proportion of Nigerian families that are funding their children’s studies abroad will be doing so from bank account held outside the country. But for many others, who must convert their native currency to foreign funds to pay international tuition and living expenses, the inescapable effect of the naira’s devaluation is that studying abroad has become quite a bit more expensive this year.

Some students are going deeper into debt, taking on additional work, and otherwise cutting expenses in order to try to make ends meet. “I still had my last school fee payment to make and the payment immediately doubled in naira. So, I plunged deeper into debt,” said one Nigerian student in the UK, speaking to last month. ““Two months ago, I was buying pounds for N850-870 per pound – at some point, N900. But it has since moved up to over N1000. It’s been very challenging,” added another.

The Central Bank is moving to try to stabilise the currency this quarter but the persistent cycle of devaluation for the naira means that more efficient and flexible payment options will be as important as ever for many Nigerian students this year.

For additional background, please see:

• “Nigerian demand surging but real challenges remain in visa processing and international payments“
• “New report highlights the increasing competition for international students from Sub-Saharan Africa“
• “Nigeria: Most students want to study abroad but many also need financial aid“

The post Nigerian economy shows its strength but the national currency is struggling again this year appeared first on 91ɬÂţMonitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Capacity issues in their domestic higher education systems are the main push factor for Sub-Saharan African students. The college-aged population is expected to double by 2050, and currently only 9% of this cohort is enrolled in higher education. This imbalance, if unchecked, will almost certainly limit economic growth and social development, and could worsen security issues.

France has been a top destination for African students from Sub-Saharan countries for years, and it now enrols about a sixth of all outbound students from the region. But France is facing increased competition as more and more foreign institutions are focusing campaigns and other investments in Africa.

Top destinations and major senders of students

The Campus France report finds that Europe claims the largest share (27%) of the 430,000 Sub-Saharan African students studying abroad. France is the main host (14%), enrolling 92,000 Sub-Saharan students in 2021/22 (at least half of whom are university undergraduates), followed by Germany (18,900) and Portugal (14,900).

Significant volumes of students travel to other African countries (20%) – especially to South Africa – and to North America (15%).

The number of internationally mobile Sub-Saharan African students has grown by 21% over the past five years. This mobility rate is now much higher than that in other world regions: 4.8% versus the 2.7% world average.

Nigeria is the main sender of students to other countries (72,000), followed by Cameroon (27,000), and Zimbabwe (19,000). Campus France finds that Nigerian outbound has declined by 24% since 2015 – in contrast to a general trend of increasing outbound mobility from the region.

The most popular destinations for Nigerians are the US, UK, and Canada. For Cameroonians, France and Germany are top choices. Zimbabweans tend to favour South Africa.

Other markets on the rise are Ghana (where the number of outbound students is up 62% since 2011) and Cote d’Ivoire (up 87%).

Trends in destination popularity

France has had great success in enrolling more Sub-Saharan African students in recent years (up 40% between 2016-21). The US is also on the move, enrolling 20% more students from the region in the past five years. But it’s Turkey (up 187%), Canada (up 67%) and Morocco (up 61%) that can claim the highest rates of growth in the past five years.

By contrast, South Africa and the UK are down 14% and 9%, respectively, in that time frame.

The following graphic from the Campus France report provides a sense of which kinds of study are the most attractive to Sub-Saharan African students right now. Licence (bachelor’s) and STEM are the main draws for African students heading to France.

For additional background, please see:

• “Ghana: Steady gains in outbound student numbers suggest further growth ahead”
• “Nigeria: Most students want to study abroad but many also need financial aid”
• “More than 400,000 international students are now in France”

The post New report highlights the increasing competition for international students from Sub-Saharan Africa appeared first on 91ɬÂţMonitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

This is the situation that Nigerian students – as well as students in Ghana, Sierra Leone, and Liberia – have found themselves in for years, and they are pushing back against a practice increasingly regarded as discriminatory.

Sapping the desire to study abroad

In Canada, the newspaper interviewed Enike Samuel, a 27-year-old who, proficient in English, decided to apply to the University of Alberta. He soon learned that he would have to take an English proficiency test to be considered for admission. Offended, he checked with universities in another Canadian province, Ontario, and found that they also required the test. He chose not to apply to the University of Alberta or the others he had considered in Ontario, telling the Globe, “I just lost the motivation to continue applying, because it didn’t make any sense to me.”

The University of Alberta changed its policy in May (Mr Samuel is now again considering applying), in response to student complaints and advocacy on the part of Olumuyiwa Igbalajobi, a researcher at the University of British Columbia. Advocates have also stretched beyond the institutional level and convinced the Standing Committee on Citizenship and Immigration in Canada’s House of Commons to recommend that the Canadian government to stop requiring Nigerian students to take English tests as part of their applications.

As the Globe points out, tests such as the IELTS cost between CDN$250 and CDN$300, where the monthly minimum wage in Nigeria is just over CDN$90.

A Nigerian man, Dr Olumuyiwa Igbalajobi wrote to the University of Alberta, Canada asking them to remove Nigeria from the list of countries whose students must present IELTS & other English tests before admission.

The school has granted the request. Not all heroes wear capes.

— Israel Usulor (@JonalistIsrael)

Cost a concern

In the UK, Nigerians are also protesting English-proficiency requirements. Some are demanding that the IELTS be scrapped entirely for Nigerians, while others want a reduction in the cost of the test and an increase in the validity period of the test, which currently is only two years.

Nigerian students point out that peers in other countries – including Barbados, Guyana, the Bahamas, Belize, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, and Jamaica – are exempt from English-proficiency testing in the UK. Nigerian youth-advocacy platform Policy Shapers has initiated on Change.org pointing out how odd and unfair it is that none of over 20 anglophone African countries are on the UK’s Majority English Speaking Country List (MESC). Students from countries on the MESC list are exempted from having to take the test. Policy Shapers has asked the Home Office to consider expanding the list in light of the intense global competition for talent, saying it would “go a long way in repositioning the UK as the choice destination for skilled and passionate migrants.”

So far, the UK government has resisted the recommendation, saying that it has no proof that a majority of Nigerians are proficient in English.

Education First’s (EF) , meanwhile, lists Nigeria 29th – putting Nigeria in the “high proficiency category.”

EF notes in its executive summary, however, that gauging English proficiency in Africa is in some ways difficult: “The picture that emerges is of a highly diverse range of English skills, the most diverse of any region, in fact, when measuring the gap between high and low scorers.”

More decisions will be made at the institutional level

Though governments in Canada, the US, and UK are apparently not yet ready to consider a broader exemption of Nigerian students from English-language testing, we can anticipate more flexibility from individual institutions. Nigeria is a crucial recruitment market, and Nigerian students are known for their strong motivation and desire to succeed.

In the US, shows that Nigerians are the most successful of any migratory group. In 2017, 61% of Nigerians in the US held at least a bachelor’s degree compared with 31% of the overall foreign-born sample and 32% of the US-born population.

Nigerians are also disproportionately accomplished in the UK. Speaking with the Financial Times in 2020, Emeka Okaro, daughter of Nigerian parents and an obstetrician and lead clinician at St Bartholomew’s and Royal London Hospital said,

“Education is an essential part of our culture. [When] I went to school, we were encouraged to excel. Parents expected it of us.”

The Financial Times notes that Nigerians are motivated by lack of opportunity at home and highly intent on success in their new country. This corresponds closely with foreign educators’ desire to enrol talented students.

In tandem with growing awareness in Nigeria that some institutions are responding to pressure to drop English-language testing, there is significant online search activity by students aimed at identifying institutions that won’t make them take a test. If you Google “Which institutions don’t require Nigerians to take IELTS” – you’ll see that the topic is most certainly on the radar of prospective Nigerian students.

For additional background, please see:

• “Alarm sounded over low approval rates for African students hoping to study in Canada”
• “Nigerian demand surging but real challenges remain in visa processing and international payments”

The post Should Nigerian students be exempt from English proficiency testing? appeared first on 91ɬÂţMonitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

Speaking at the recent 91ɬÂţAfrica event, Ms Akpo-Edewor explained that Nigerians are also facing another important hurdle this year in that access to foreign exchange is currently limited. “Students are struggling to get forex to pay their fees. There are long queues at the bank because our forex policy is controlled entirely by the Central Bank of Nigeria. So for a student to get school fees paid, you need to go through the Central Bank of Nigeria and as we speak there is a lack of forex.”

A recent report from the think tank and advocacy platform explains the current situation as, “There is excess demand for dollars against the naira to import products (such as petrol, gas, power sources, and automobiles) and [pay for] foreign services (such as school fees, medical services, foreign holidays, and foreign loans).”

Part of that demand is being met by the so-called parallel market – that is, a black market for foreign exchange trading outside of official CBN channels. But the cost of foreign currency has been rising this year in both official and unofficial markets, due to surging demand from Nigerian families and businesses alongside a significant devaluation of the Nigerian naira this year.

Tight controls from the central bank

As in many countries around the world, inflation is also playing an important part in the Nigerian economy this year, rising above forecasts to reach nearly 18% in May 2022. The government, and the central bank, are moving to counter the threat of inflation with higher interest rates. Unlike many other economies around the world, however, the Central Bank of Nigeria also plays an outsized role with respect to exchange rates and access to foreign currency. There are times, for example, where the central bank simply cuts off the supply of foreign currency to other exchange outlets within Nigeria. This further fuels demand for forex in the black market, as a recent item from explains:

“One of the major causes of the double digit inflation experienced by Nigerians in 2021, is the sharp depreciation of the Naira in the parallel market, where most businesses and individuals depend for the foreign exchange needs in 2021.

While the naira depreciated marginally by 1.1% in the official Investors and Exporters (I&E) window, where the exchange rate rose to N415.10 per dollar from N410.25 per dollar at the beginning of the year, the naira depreciated by 22.8% in the parallel market.

The sharp depreciation of the naira in the parallel market was driven by increased demand amidst low dollar supply, a situation worsened by the July 27 decision of the Central Bank of Nigeria to stop dollar sales to Bureaux De Change (BDCs).”

The bank’s heavy hand with respect to the forex supply is informed in part by the government’s interest in propping up the value of the naira — in that sense, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and access to foreign currency are all strongly intertwined elements of the Nigerian economy.

As African Liberty explains, “Nigeria’s external [foreign currency] reserve is usually used as a backup for the international value of the naira, and it is constantly under pressure because of the volatility and uncertainty of crude oil prices, which is a significant FX earner for the country. The West African country is also dealing with high government indebtedness, which weakens the naira.”

A large and complex market

Even so, demand for study abroad remains strong and is strengthening further this year. There are not nearly enough seats in Nigerian universities to keep pace with demand, and rising security concerns at home — some political, others related to ongoing strikes and labour disruptions – are further motivating parents to enrol their students abroad.

Indeed, Nigeria remains one of the largest and fastest-growing markets for outbound students on the continent. UNESCO reported that 70,000-80,000 Nigerians were going abroad for higher education annually in the years leading up to the pandemic. But this number also certainly undercounts the numbers of students moving to neighbouring countries in Africa, such as Ghana.

Adedamola Oloketuyi is the director of AOC Schengen, a Germany-based agency focused on advising Nigerian students on study in Europe. Also on the panel at 91ɬÂţAfrica, he reflected on the scale and complexity of the Nigerian market: “Nigeria has more than 80 million youth but very few universities to cater to them. Nigerian students have a culture of going abroad for study, not just because of the education but because of the opportunities [they can find abroad] as well. The advice for any school [recruiting in Nigeria] is you have to know your target market.” The country is remarkably different from region to region he adds, and even from tribe to tribe. “There is a market for everybody, it just depends on who you are targeting.”

For additional background, please see:

• “Nigeria: Most students want to study abroad but many also need financial aid“
• “Alarm sounded over low approval rates for African students hoping to study in Canada“
• “Demand-side data provides further evidence of shifts in Nigerian study abroad“

The post Nigerian demand surging but real challenges remain in visa processing and international payments appeared first on 91ɬÂţMonitor - Market intelligence for international student recruitment.

was produced by a consortium comprising the University of Sussex, The Student Coach, BUILA Africa, Culture Intelligence from RED and Vive Africa, and it is based on a survey of roughly 4,100 Nigerian students as well as on supplementary research. It was conducted in July through September 2021 across various regions in Nigeria.

Two-thirds of surveyed students were interested in undergraduate studies, and a third were looking for graduate programmes.

Preferred destinations

The UK, US, Canada, Germany, and Australia are the preferred host countries for surveyed Nigerian students. However, even more survey respondents indicated a preference for distance learning (46.6%) than in-person learning abroad (40.6%), perhaps as a result of financial constraints.

Scholarships, safety, and affordability are top priorities

The availability of scholarships and a country’s reputation for being safe, secure, and welcoming are the most compelling draws for Nigerian students. The ability to work part-time during studies, “low living expenses,” and the presence of family or friends in a host country also factor into Nigerian students’ decisions about where to study. As depicted in the chart below, Nigerian students consider many factors when choosing where to study abroad.

Professors are key influencers and scholarships are a hot topic

Roughly 70% of surveyed students said the opinions of their lecturers, career mentors, and advisors carry the most weight when it comes to which foreign institutions they decide to apply to. Also important to students were efforts by the foreign institution to engage with them one-on-one. The report notes, “students desire a more personal, focused relationship in order to be more motivated to attend a particular institution.”

Interestingly, students were not particularly influenced by institutional marketing involving alumni, and the report suggests that communicating with faculty is likely a better bet for universities recruiting in Nigeria this year.

The most important resource for Nigerian students to engage with a university and to apply is the institutional website. WhatsApp, Skype, and Facebook Messenger follow as most-used resources.

After they register, students prefer communicating with institutions through email (especially correspondence with course professors – preferred to emails from the international team or generic communications from the institution) and WhatsApp. Students find social media live sessions to be the most effective means of engaging with the institutions they have applied to; in order, Instagram Live, Facebook Live, and YouTube Live are their preferred channels for live sessions. In-person events, webinars, and “open days” follow as popular opportunities for engaging with institutions. Wherever the engagement happens, students want scholarships to be discussed, followed by academics and career opportunities. As shown in the chart below, 6 in 10 students said they were looking for a full scholarship.

Students search for ways to reduce financial burden

Most students indicated that they would prefer to pay their tuition in instalments and they look carefully at whether scholarships are available. The report emphasises that affordability remains a major issue for Nigerian students and says that this is a significant reason that many have chosen to study in China or Germany over more expensive English-speaking destinations. The report recommends,

“Universities need to innovate around providing suitable tuition payment terms and scholarship opportunities especially for students of African origin whose economic status may not be as buoyant as that of students from other continents.”

The government’s devaluation of the naira – brought on by falling oil prices during the pandemic – has had a significant impact on Nigerians, .

The pandemic has affected the popularity of certain study fields

Nearly two-thirds (65%) of students said that the pandemic has affected which programmes they apply to, and the report anticipates that interest in health-related fields such as nursing will continue to grow, particularly if there are strong post-study work rights available in host countries given “abysmal” career opportunities in the healthcare sector in Nigeria. These are the programme areas that surveyed Nigerian students cited the most frequently, in order of popularity:

• Law
• Engineering
• Health Studies and Medicine
• Business Management
• Computer Science and Information Technology
• Media Studies & Writing

A promising market with challenges

Nigeria remains a promising market for foreign institutions, but financial considerations are top of mind for students and without funding assistance, many Nigerians may not be able to study abroad in the near term. This reality may be the reason that significant proportions of Nigerians are interested in distance learning with a foreign institution. The survey findings also highlight the opportunity for universities of engaging with local Nigerian academics and of investing in personalised communications with students. Nigerian students are looking for more than generic communications from institutions and want to seriously engage with the staff at institutions they are considering.

For additional background, please see:

• “Demand-side data provides further evidence of shifts in Nigerians’ motivations for study abroad”

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